Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for CHENESO-23
in Madagascar
25 Jan 2023 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone CHENESO-23 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries Madagascar
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 79 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.6 m (25 Jan 02:30 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 79 km/h 0.6 m 371 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 104 km/h 0.7 m 1041 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

104 km/h

Up to 70 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 25 Jan 2023 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMadagascar74,214 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 17 Jan 2023 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 18 Jan 2023 00:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 18 Jan 2023 12:00 90 -
- - - - - Zambia
GREEN 4 19 Jan 2023 00:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 19 Jan 2023 12:00 65 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 6 20 Jan 2023 00:00 - 2 million
Tanzania, Kenya, Seychelles, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Comoros, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, Reunion, South Africa, Eswatini
GREEN 7 20 Jan 2023 12:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 21 Jan 2023 00:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 21 Jan 2023 12:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 22 Jan 2023 00:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 22 Jan 2023 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 23 Jan 2023 00:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 23 Jan 2023 12:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 24 Jan 2023 00:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 24 Jan 2023 12:00 79 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 16 25 Jan 2023 00:00 108 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 25 Jan 2023 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMadagascar, Reunion515,535
+
Madagascar208,303 
Reunion307,231 
100-250 mmMadagascar, Mauritius, Reunion, South Africa5,348,399
+
Madagascar3,572,153 
Mauritius1,178,096 
Reunion553,922 
South Africa44,227 
50-100 mmTanzania, Malawi, Zambia, Comoros, Mozambique, Madagascar, Mauritius, South Africa8,163,419
+
Tanzania6,703 
Malawi434,916 
Zambia651,043 
Comoros13,748 
Mozambique199,309 
Madagascar5,902,818 
Mauritius52,139 
South Africa902,739 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 17 Jan 2023 12:00 134 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 18 Jan 2023 00:00 174 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 18 Jan 2023 12:00 356 -
- - - - - Seychelles, Madagascar, Reunion
Blue 4 19 Jan 2023 00:00 133 50 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 5 19 Jan 2023 12:00 156 230 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 6 20 Jan 2023 00:00 118 20 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 7 20 Jan 2023 12:00 135 20 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 8 21 Jan 2023 00:00 136 3 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 9 21 Jan 2023 12:00 193 30 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 10 22 Jan 2023 00:00 245 70 thousand
- - - - Comoros, Madagascar
Blue 11 22 Jan 2023 12:00 142 9 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 12 23 Jan 2023 00:00 220 40 thousand
- - - - Comoros, Madagascar
Blue 13 23 Jan 2023 12:00 122 9 thousand
- - - - Madagascar, Reunion
Blue 14 24 Jan 2023 00:00 213 230 thousand
- - - - Madagascar, Reunion
Blue 15 24 Jan 2023 12:00 410 70 thousand
- - - - Madagascar, Reunion
Blue 16 25 Jan 2023 00:00 444 5.9 million
- - - Tanzania, Malawi, Zambia, Comoros, Mozambique, Madagascar, Mauritius, Reunion, South Africa




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.6 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 25 Jan 2023 00:00 UTC