Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for CHENESO-23
in Madagascar
26 Jan 2023 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone CHENESO-23 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries Madagascar
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 101 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.7 m (26 Jan 01:45 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 101 km/h 0.7 m 153 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 104 km/h 0.7 m 1041 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

104 km/h

Up to 120 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 26 Jan 2023 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMadagascar117,770 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 17 Jan 2023 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 18 Jan 2023 00:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 18 Jan 2023 12:00 90 -
- - - - - Zambia
GREEN 4 19 Jan 2023 00:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 19 Jan 2023 12:00 65 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 6 20 Jan 2023 00:00 - 2 million
Tanzania, Kenya, Seychelles, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Comoros, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, Reunion, South Africa, Eswatini
GREEN 7 20 Jan 2023 12:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 21 Jan 2023 00:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 21 Jan 2023 12:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 22 Jan 2023 00:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 22 Jan 2023 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 23 Jan 2023 00:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 23 Jan 2023 12:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 24 Jan 2023 00:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 24 Jan 2023 12:00 79 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 16 25 Jan 2023 00:00 79 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 17 25 Jan 2023 12:00 101 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 18 26 Jan 2023 00:00 104 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 26 Jan 2023 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMadagascar10,095 
100-250 mmMadagascar, Mauritius, Reunion2,776,851
+
Madagascar1,508,276 
Mauritius1,230,236 
Reunion38,338 
50-100 mmTanzania, Malawi, Zambia, Mozambique, Madagascar, Reunion6,543,244
+
Tanzania15,463 
Malawi114,459 
Zambia2,094 
Mozambique14,692 
Madagascar6,297,498 
Reunion99,036 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 17 Jan 2023 12:00 134 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 18 Jan 2023 00:00 174 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 18 Jan 2023 12:00 356 -
- - - - - Seychelles, Madagascar, Reunion
Blue 4 19 Jan 2023 00:00 133 50 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 5 19 Jan 2023 12:00 156 230 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 6 20 Jan 2023 00:00 118 20 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 7 20 Jan 2023 12:00 135 20 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 8 21 Jan 2023 00:00 136 3 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 9 21 Jan 2023 12:00 193 30 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 10 22 Jan 2023 00:00 245 70 thousand
- - - - Comoros, Madagascar
Blue 11 22 Jan 2023 12:00 142 9 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 12 23 Jan 2023 00:00 220 40 thousand
- - - - Comoros, Madagascar
Blue 13 23 Jan 2023 12:00 122 9 thousand
- - - - Madagascar, Reunion
Blue 14 24 Jan 2023 00:00 213 230 thousand
- - - - Madagascar, Reunion
Blue 15 24 Jan 2023 12:00 410 70 thousand
- - - - Madagascar, Reunion
Blue 16 25 Jan 2023 00:00 371 800 thousand
- - - - Madagascar, Reunion
Blue 17 25 Jan 2023 12:00 266 330 thousand
- - - Madagascar, Mauritius, Reunion, South Africa
Blue 18 26 Jan 2023 00:00 410 2.8 million
- - - Tanzania, Malawi, Zambia, Mozambique, Madagascar, Mauritius, Reunion




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.7 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 26 Jan 2023 00:00 UTC