Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for CHENESO-23
in Madagascar
26 Jan 2023 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone CHENESO-23 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries Tanzania, Kenya, Seychelles, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Comoros, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, Mauritius, Reunion, South Africa, Eswatini
Exposed population 4.4 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 104 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.7 m (23 Jan 04:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 104 km/h 0.7 m 1041 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 104 km/h 0.7 m 1041 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

104 km/h

Up to 1 million can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 26 Jan 2023 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 5Tanzania, Kenya, Seychelles, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Comoros, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, Reunion, South Africa, Eswatini3,676,781
+
Tanzania526,836 
Kenya91,647 
Seychelles20,789 
Zambia50,460 
Malawi341,328 
Mozambique334,001 
Comoros1,400 
Madagascar2,119,952 
Zimbabwe143,419 
Reunion23 
South Africa41,371 
Eswatini5,550 
CAT. 4Tanzania, Kenya, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Comoros, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, Reunion, South Africa183,780
+
Tanzania55,858 
Kenya5,583 
Zambia548 
Malawi19,749 
Mozambique8,971 
Comoros350 
Madagascar88,219 
Zimbabwe2,576 
Reunion104 
South Africa1,819 
CAT. 3Kenya, Tanzania, Seychelles, Malawi, Zambia, Mozambique, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, South Africa, Eswatini127,613
+
Tanzania32,527 
Kenya3,274 
Seychelles2,071 
Zambia8,244 
Malawi12,416 
Mozambique14,697 
Madagascar48,779 
Zimbabwe4,646 
South Africa941 
Eswatini12 
CAT. 2Tanzania, Kenya, Seychelles, Malawi, Zambia, Mozambique, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, Reunion, Eswatini, South Africa148,311
+
Tanzania72,262 
Kenya2,694 
Seychelles1,262 
Zambia736 
Malawi13,989 
Mozambique23,048 
Madagascar27,473 
Zimbabwe5,694 
Reunion23 
South Africa1,092 
Eswatini32 
CAT. 1Tanzania, Kenya, Seychelles, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, Reunion, South Africa, Eswatini234,689
+
Tanzania63,676 
Kenya7,088 
Seychelles2,032 
Zambia4,775 
Malawi27,627 
Mozambique29,975 
Madagascar90,243 
Zimbabwe6,141 
Reunion38 
South Africa2,752 
Eswatini338 
Tropical StormTanzania, Kenya, Seychelles, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, Mauritius, Reunion, South Africa, Eswatini1,026,354
+
Tanzania225,845 
Kenya17,621 
Seychelles03 
Zambia99,071 
Malawi90,559 
Mozambique238,557 
Madagascar240,181 
Zimbabwe43,078 
Mauritius1,359 
Reunion232 
South Africa64,867 
Eswatini4,976 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 17 Jan 2023 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 18 Jan 2023 00:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 18 Jan 2023 12:00 90 -
- - - - - Zambia
GREEN 4 19 Jan 2023 00:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 19 Jan 2023 12:00 65 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 6 20 Jan 2023 00:00 - 2 million
Tanzania, Kenya, Seychelles, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Comoros, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, Reunion, South Africa, Eswatini
GREEN 7 20 Jan 2023 12:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 21 Jan 2023 00:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 21 Jan 2023 12:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 22 Jan 2023 00:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 22 Jan 2023 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 23 Jan 2023 00:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 23 Jan 2023 12:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 24 Jan 2023 00:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 24 Jan 2023 12:00 79 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 16 25 Jan 2023 00:00 79 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 17 25 Jan 2023 12:00 101 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 18 26 Jan 2023 00:00 101 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 19 26 Jan 2023 12:00 104 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 26 Jan 2023 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
more than 1000 mmReunion8,203 
750-1000 mmMadagascar, Reunion118,670
+
Madagascar36,413 
Reunion82,257 
500-750 mmMadagascar, Reunion2,609,973
+
Madagascar2,446,045 
Reunion163,928 
250-500 mmComoros, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, Reunion16,805,205
+
Malawi30,593 
Mauritius1,230,236 
Comoros192,623 
Madagascar14,744,987 
Reunion606,764 
100-250 mmTanzania, Seychelles, Zambia, Malawi, Comoros, Mozambique, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, South Africa26,496,498
+
Tanzania783,632 
Seychelles3,923 
Zambia1,362,594 
Malawi11,494,210 
Mozambique7,683,140 
Comoros171,293 
Madagascar4,312,733 
Zimbabwe613,770 
South Africa71,198 
50-100 mmTanzania, Seychelles, Zambia, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, Comoros, Madagascar, Mayotte, Zimbabwe, South Africa27,772,729
+
Tanzania6,985,695 
Seychelles92,547 
Zambia1,768,487 
Malawi5,664,165 
Mauritius176 
Mozambique8,639,519 
Comoros71,537 
Madagascar1,408,791 
Mayotte189,471 
Zimbabwe2,154,145 
South Africa798,190 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 17 Jan 2023 12:00 134 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 18 Jan 2023 00:00 174 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 18 Jan 2023 12:00 356 -
- - - - - Seychelles, Madagascar, Reunion
Blue 4 19 Jan 2023 00:00 133 50 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 5 19 Jan 2023 12:00 156 230 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 6 20 Jan 2023 00:00 118 20 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 7 20 Jan 2023 12:00 135 20 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 8 21 Jan 2023 00:00 136 3 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 9 21 Jan 2023 12:00 193 30 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 10 22 Jan 2023 00:00 245 70 thousand
- - - - Comoros, Madagascar
Blue 11 22 Jan 2023 12:00 142 9 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 12 23 Jan 2023 00:00 220 40 thousand
- - - - Comoros, Madagascar
Blue 13 23 Jan 2023 12:00 122 9 thousand
- - - - Madagascar, Reunion
Blue 14 24 Jan 2023 00:00 213 230 thousand
- - - - Madagascar, Reunion
Blue 15 24 Jan 2023 12:00 410 70 thousand
- - - - Madagascar, Reunion
Blue 16 25 Jan 2023 00:00 371 800 thousand
- - - - Madagascar, Reunion
Blue 17 25 Jan 2023 12:00 266 330 thousand
- - - Madagascar, Mauritius, Reunion, South Africa
Blue 18 26 Jan 2023 00:00 153 30 thousand
- - - - Madagascar, Mauritius, Reunion
Blue 19 26 Jan 2023 12:00 306 660 thousand
- - - Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Madagascar, Mauritius, Reunion




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.4m in Toamasina, Anantoraka, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 19/01/2023 15:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 26 Jan 2023 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
0.25 - 0.5 mMadagascar, Mozambique4,751
+
Madagascar94 
Mozambique4,657 

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 26 Jan 2023 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
19/01/2023 15:00 Toamasina, Anantoraka Madagascar  0.4
25/01/2023 16:00 Sofala, Jonja Mozambique  0.3
19/01/2023 15:00 Toamasina, Maintimbato Madagascar  0.3
25/01/2023 16:00 Sofala, Machesse Mozambique  0.3
25/01/2023 20:00 Mahajanga, Mahabo Madagascar  0.2
19/01/2023 15:00 Toamasina, Anoromby Madagascar  0.2
25/01/2023 18:00 Zambezia, Chimuaza Mozambique  0.2
17/01/2023 21:00 Toamasina, Mahavanona Madagascar  0.2
19/01/2023 15:00 Antsiranana, Rantranavona Madagascar  0.2
17/01/2023 23:00 Pwani, Msindaji Tanzania  0.2
17/01/2023 17:00 Mjini-Magharibi (Zanzibar Urban/West), Zanzibar Fumba Tanzania  0.2
25/01/2023 19:00 Mahajanga, Baly Madagascar  0.2
26/01/2023 02:00 Zambezia, Mulia Mozambique  0.2
17/01/2023 21:00 Toamasina, Ile Sainte-marie Ambodifototra Madagascar  0.2
26/01/2023 03:00 Zambezia, Tomodo Mozambique  0.2
17/01/2023 18:00 Toamasina, Manakalana Madagascar  0.2
19/01/2023 06:00 Antsiranana, Antalaha Madagascar  0.2
26/01/2023 04:00 Mahajanga, Andamoty Madagascar  0.2
20/01/2023 20:00 Mahajanga, Ankinganomby Madagascar  0.2
26/01/2023 02:00 , Mutiba Mozambique  0.2
17/01/2023 18:00 Pwani, Magawa Tanzania  0.2
19/01/2023 06:00 Antsiranana, Ampaha Madagascar  0.2
19/01/2023 15:00 Toamasina, Manompana Madagascar  0.2
18/01/2023 00:00 , Analanampotsy Madagascar  0.2
19/01/2023 14:00 Antsiranana, Antanjokatafana Madagascar  0.2
17/01/2023 18:00 , Maxixe Mozambique  0.2
19/01/2023 16:00 Toamasina, Ivontaka Madagascar  0.2
19/01/2023 06:00 Antsiranana, Andrapengy Madagascar  0.2
25/01/2023 17:00 , Mocambique Mozambique  0.2
19/01/2023 03:00 , Nosy Komba Anjiabe Madagascar  0.2
19/01/2023 08:00 Antsiranana, Anjanozana Madagascar  0.2
19/01/2023 08:00 Antsiranana, Ampanavoana Madagascar  0.2
26/01/2023 03:00 Nampula, Coropoa Mozambique  0.2
23/01/2023 15:00 , Bartolomeu Dias Mozambique  0.2
19/01/2023 17:00 Toamasina, Ile Sainte-marie Tanambe Madagascar  0.2
25/01/2023 19:00 Toliara, Saint Augustin Madagascar  0.2
17/01/2023 18:00 Pwani, Kisiju Tanzania  0.2
19/01/2023 01:00 Antsiranana, Antsorokaka Madagascar  0.1
26/01/2023 04:00 Nampula, Mosengeri Mozambique  0.1
26/01/2023 04:00 , Cabaceira Mozambique  0.1
19/01/2023 07:00 Antsiranana, Vinanivao Madagascar  0.1
26/01/2023 05:00 Nampula, Miaola Mozambique  0.1
26/01/2023 05:00 Nampula, Nhiendgi Mozambique  0.1
18/01/2023 16:00 Antsiranana, Nossi-be Andrafia Madagascar  0.1
19/01/2023 03:00 Antsiranana, Andranira Madagascar  0.1
26/01/2023 05:00 Nampula, Macalopa Mozambique  0.1
19/01/2023 03:00 Antsiranana, Ampana Kanana Madagascar  0.1
19/01/2023 00:00 Antsiranana, Ambondrombe Madagascar  0.1
26/01/2023 03:00 Fianarantsoa, Mangatsiatra Madagascar  0.1
17/01/2023 15:00 Toamasina, Ile Sainte-marie Vohilava Madagascar  0.1
25/01/2023 15:00 Toamasina, Vohitramposina Madagascar  0.1
25/01/2023 21:00 Toamasina, Mahatsara Madagascar  0.1
26/01/2023 05:00 Cabo Delgado, Ombauine Mozambique  0.1
23/01/2023 10:00 Toamasina, Ambodimanga Madagascar  0.1
25/01/2023 11:00 Toamasina, Marosiky Madagascar  0.1
17/01/2023 17:00 Tanga, Ushongo Mabaoni Tanzania  0.1
17/01/2023 17:00 Tanga, Bomalandani Tanzania  0.1
18/01/2023 04:00 Antsiranana, Antsahalalina Madagascar  0.1
25/01/2023 17:00 Cabo Delgado, Murrebue Mozambique  0.1
25/01/2023 10:00 Toamasina, Mahanoro Madagascar  0.1
26/01/2023 05:00 Cabo Delgado, Morumequina Mozambique  0.1
25/01/2023 10:00 Toamasina, Ambila-Lemaitso Madagascar  0.1
25/01/2023 10:00 Fianarantsoa, Manakara Madagascar  0.1
25/01/2023 17:00 Toamasina, Antetezambaro Madagascar  0.1
19/01/2023 05:00 , Nosy Mitsio Ambaramidada Madagascar  0.1
25/01/2023 17:00 Cabo Delgado, Bawala Mozambique  0.1
26/01/2023 02:00 Fianarantsoa, Itenina Madagascar  0.1
25/01/2023 10:00 Fianarantsoa, Mananjary Madagascar  0.1
26/01/2023 02:00 Toamasina, Ampanotoamaizina Madagascar  0.1
25/01/2023 17:00 Toamasina, Tampina Madagascar  0.1
25/01/2023 17:00 Toamasina, Tamatave Madagascar  0.1
25/01/2023 17:00 , Tavari Mozambique  0.1
25/01/2023 10:00 Fianarantsoa, Anakitaina Madagascar  0.1
26/01/2023 05:00 Fianarantsoa, Loharano Madagascar  0.1
19/01/2023 04:00 Antsiranana, Amboanio Madagascar  0.1
17/01/2023 14:00 KwaZulu Natal, Dokodweni South Africa  0.1
26/01/2023 02:00 Fianarantsoa, Manambotra Madagascar  0.1
26/01/2023 05:00 , Pangane Mozambique  0.1
26/01/2023 03:00 Fianarantsoa, Amboboka Madagascar  0.1
26/01/2023 05:00 , Dzaoudzi Mayotte  0.1
19/01/2023 19:00 Mahajanga, Antananabe Madagascar  0.1
26/01/2023 04:00 Inhambane, Ilha do Bazaruto Asneira Mozambique  0.1
25/01/2023 17:00 Cabo Delgado, Ingoane Mozambique  0.1
17/01/2023 17:00 Dar-es-Salaam, Msasani Tanzania  0.1
26/01/2023 06:00 Toliara, Beaniky Madagascar  0.1
23/01/2023 14:00 Inhambane, Inhassoro Mozambique  0.1
17/01/2023 17:00 Dar-es-Salaam, Konduchi Tanzania  0.1
26/01/2023 03:00 Toliara, Manambato Madagascar  0.1
17/01/2023 17:00 Coast, Mkwiro Kenya  0.1
17/01/2023 17:00 , Marivate Mozambique  0.1
26/01/2023 06:00 Toliara, Mitriaky Madagascar  0.1
17/01/2023 17:00 Coast, Kisima Chande Kenya  0.1
17/01/2023 17:00 Kaskazini-Unguja (Zanzibar North), Zanzibar Gazija Tanzania  0.1
25/01/2023 16:00 , Mariano Mozambique  0.1
25/01/2023 17:00 Kusini Unguja (Zanzibar Central/South), Zanzibar Dikoni Tanzania  0.1
19/01/2023 00:00 Antsiranana, Ampondrabe Madagascar  0.1
26/01/2023 05:00 , Grande Comore Chezani Comoros  0.1
17/01/2023 17:00 Coast, Watamu Kenya  0.1
25/01/2023 17:00 Pwani, Chole Tanzania  0.1
25/01/2023 17:00 Kusini-Pemba (Pemba South), Pemba Kitwea Tanzania  0.1
26/01/2023 03:00 Fianarantsoa, Akondro Madagascar  0.1
25/01/2023 17:00 Kaskazini-Unguja (Zanzibar North), Zanzibar Mdudu Mdogo Tanzania  0.1
25/01/2023 17:00 Kaskazini-Pemba (Pemba North), Pemba Kiuyu Tanzania  0.1
25/01/2023 17:00 Coast, Mtwapa Kenya  0.1
17/01/2023 19:00 , Chicoque Mozambique  0.1