Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for CHENESO-23
in Madagascar
18 Jan 2023 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone CHENESO-23 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 68 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (18 Jan 08:30 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 68 km/h 0.5 m 174 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 104 km/h 0.7 m 1041 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

104 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 18 Jan 2023 00:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 17 Jan 2023 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 18 Jan 2023 00:00 83 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 18 Jan 2023 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMadagascar236,413 
100-250 mmMadagascar, Malawi, Reunion7,694,052
+
Malawi16,909 
Madagascar7,664,042 
Reunion13,101 
50-100 mmTanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, Mauritius, Reunion9,218,738
+
Tanzania154,228 
Zambia99,078 
Malawi3,490,094 
Mozambique693,127 
Madagascar4,229,272 
Zimbabwe5,441 
Mauritius339,551 
Reunion207,943 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 17 Jan 2023 12:00 134 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 18 Jan 2023 00:00 529 7.9 million
- - - Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, Mauritius, Reunion




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Toamasina, Anantoraka, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 18/01/2023 23:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 18 Jan 2023 00:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
18/01/2023 23:00 Toamasina, Anantoraka Madagascar  0.3
19/01/2023 04:00 Toamasina, Maintimbato Madagascar  0.2
20/01/2023 08:00 Mahajanga, Ankinganomby Madagascar  0.2
19/01/2023 00:00 Toamasina, Anoromby Madagascar  0.2
18/01/2023 06:00 Sofala, Jonja Mozambique  0.2
18/01/2023 23:00 Antsiranana, Rantranavona Madagascar  0.2
17/01/2023 16:00 Mjini-Magharibi (Zanzibar Urban/West), Zanzibar Fumba Tanzania  0.2
18/01/2023 13:00 Antsiranana, Antsorokaka Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 05:00 Sofala, Machesse Mozambique  0.1
18/01/2023 19:00 Toamasina, Manakalana Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 22:00 Antsiranana, Antalaha Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 05:00 Mahajanga, Mahabo Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 18:00 , Analanampotsy Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 22:00 Antsiranana, Antanjokatafana Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 19:00 Toamasina, Mahavanona Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 22:00 Antsiranana, Ampaha Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 23:00 Antsiranana, Anjanozana Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 23:00 Antsiranana, Ampanavoana Madagascar  0.1
17/01/2023 17:00 Antsiranana, Nossi-be Andrafia Madagascar  0.1
17/01/2023 18:00 , Nosy Komba Anjiabe Madagascar  0.1
19/01/2023 01:00 Toamasina, Ile Sainte-marie Ambodifototra Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 22:00 Antsiranana, Vinanivao Madagascar  0.1
17/01/2023 16:00 Antsiranana, Antsahalalina Madagascar  0.1
19/01/2023 01:00 Toamasina, Ivontaka Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 22:00 Antsiranana, Andrapengy Madagascar  0.1
19/01/2023 07:00 Antsiranana, Andranira Madagascar  0.1
19/01/2023 01:00 Toamasina, Manompana Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 04:00 Mahajanga, Andamoty Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 05:00 Zambezia, Chimuaza Mozambique  0.1
19/01/2023 02:00 Antsiranana, Ampana Kanana Madagascar  0.1
19/01/2023 03:00 Antsiranana, Ambondrombe Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 03:00 Pwani, Msindaji Tanzania  0.1
19/01/2023 01:00 Toamasina, Ile Sainte-marie Tanambe Madagascar  0.1
19/01/2023 07:00 Mahajanga, Antananabe Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 03:00 , Bartolomeu Dias Mozambique  0.1
19/01/2023 04:00 Toamasina, Ile Sainte-marie Vohilava Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 05:00 Zambezia, Mulia Mozambique  0.1
18/01/2023 06:00 , Maxixe Mozambique  0.1