Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for CHENESO-23
in Madagascar
18 Jan 2023 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone CHENESO-23 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 90 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.6 m (18 Jan 17:30 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 90 km/h 0.6 m 356 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 104 km/h 0.7 m 1041 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

104 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 18 Jan 2023 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 17 Jan 2023 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 18 Jan 2023 00:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 18 Jan 2023 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 18 Jan 2023 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
500-750 mmMadagascar18,020 
250-500 mmMadagascar1,008,733 
100-250 mmMadagascar, Malawi, Reunion9,087,507
+
Malawi118,480 
Madagascar8,916,437 
Reunion52,589 
50-100 mmTanzania, Seychelles, Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia, Comoros, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, Mauritius, Reunion14,445,552
+
Tanzania295,882 
Seychelles2,025 
Malawi4,029,863 
Mozambique927,138 
Zambia283,824 
Comoros257,073 
Madagascar7,294,498 
Zimbabwe422 
Mauritius1,020,205 
Reunion334,617 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 17 Jan 2023 12:00 134 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 18 Jan 2023 00:00 174 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 18 Jan 2023 12:00 708 10.1 million
- - Tanzania, Seychelles, Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia, Comoros, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, Mauritius, Reunion




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Toamasina, Anantoraka, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 18/01/2023 11:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 18 Jan 2023 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
18/01/2023 11:00 Toamasina, Anantoraka Madagascar  0.3
18/01/2023 15:00 Toamasina, Maintimbato Madagascar  0.2
18/01/2023 15:00 Toamasina, Anoromby Madagascar  0.2
18/01/2023 10:00 Antsiranana, Rantranavona Madagascar  0.2
19/01/2023 19:00 Mahajanga, Mahabo Madagascar  0.2
18/01/2023 09:00 Antsiranana, Antalaha Madagascar  0.2
18/01/2023 08:00 Antsiranana, Ampaha Madagascar  0.2
18/01/2023 15:00 Toamasina, Ivontaka Madagascar  0.1
19/01/2023 17:00 Mahajanga, Ankinganomby Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 07:00 Antsiranana, Andrapengy Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 15:00 Toamasina, Manakalana Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 16:00 Toamasina, Mahavanona Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 15:00 Toamasina, Manompana Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 10:00 Antsiranana, Antanjokatafana Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 16:00 Toamasina, Ile Sainte-marie Ambodifototra Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 16:00 , Analanampotsy Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 10:00 Antsiranana, Anjanozana Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 10:00 Antsiranana, Ampanavoana Madagascar  0.1
17/01/2023 12:00 Antsiranana, Antsorokaka Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 15:00 Toamasina, Ile Sainte-marie Tanambe Madagascar  0.1
19/01/2023 17:00 Sofala, Jonja Mozambique  0.1
17/01/2023 16:00 Zambezia, Chimuaza Mozambique  0.1
18/01/2023 12:00 Antsiranana, Vinanivao Madagascar  0.1
19/01/2023 17:00 Sofala, Machesse Mozambique  0.1
18/01/2023 03:00 Antsiranana, Ampana Kanana Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 04:00 Mahajanga, Andamoty Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 19:00 Mahajanga, Antananabe Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 16:00 Antsiranana, Andranira Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 16:00 , Nosy Komba Anjiabe Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 14:00 Antsiranana, Ambondrombe Madagascar  0.1
19/01/2023 19:00 Mahajanga, Baly Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 15:00 Toamasina, Ile Sainte-marie Vohilava Madagascar  0.1
17/01/2023 19:00 Mjini-Magharibi (Zanzibar Urban/West), Zanzibar Fumba Tanzania  0.1
19/01/2023 15:00 Pwani, Msindaji Tanzania  0.1
17/01/2023 18:00 Antsiranana, Antsahalalina Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 04:00 Antsiranana, Nossi-be Andrafia Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 06:00 , Nosy Mitsio Ambaramidada Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 03:00 Antsiranana, Amboanio Madagascar  0.1