Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for CHENESO-23
in Madagascar
18 Jan 2023 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone CHENESO-23 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Madagascar
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 104 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1.2 m (18 Jan 13:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 104 km/h 1.2 m 192 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 151 km/h 1.5 m 905 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

151 km/h

Up to 210 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 18 Jan 2023 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMadagascar212,681 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 18 Jan 2023 00:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 18 Jan 2023 06:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 18 Jan 2023 12:00 119 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 18 Jan 2023 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMadagascar829,240 
100-250 mmMadagascar, Mozambique, Malawi9,817,258
+
Madagascar8,673,573 
Mozambique33,019 
Malawi1,110,665 
50-100 mmIndonesia, Tanzania, Mauritius, Comoros, Madagascar, Mozambique, Malawi, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Reunion20,320,177
+
Indonesia45,188 
Tanzania52,178 
Mauritius64,397 
Comoros316,257 
Madagascar6,913,842 
Mozambique3,539,506 
Malawi8,675,284 
Zambia17,892 
Zimbabwe234,972 
Reunion460,657 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 18 Jan 2023 00:00 85 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 18 Jan 2023 06:00 104 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 18 Jan 2023 12:00 386 10.6 million
- - - Indonesia, Tanzania, Mauritius, Comoros, Madagascar, Mozambique, Malawi, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Reunion




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in , Nosy Komba Anjiabe, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 18/01/2023 17:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 18 Jan 2023 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
18/01/2023 17:00 , Nosy Komba Anjiabe Madagascar  0.2
18/01/2023 17:00 Antsiranana, Andranira Madagascar  0.2
18/01/2023 02:00 Toamasina, Anantoraka Madagascar  0.2
18/01/2023 17:00 Antsiranana, Nossi-be Andrafia Madagascar  0.2
18/01/2023 10:00 Antsiranana, Ambondrombe Madagascar  0.2
18/01/2023 10:00 Antsiranana, Ampana Kanana Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 02:00 Toamasina, Maintimbato Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 17:00 , Nosy Mitsio Ambaramidada Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 00:00 Mjini-Magharibi (Zanzibar Urban/West), Zanzibar Fumba Tanzania  0.1
18/01/2023 02:00 Antsiranana, Rantranavona Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 17:00 Toamasina, Manakalana Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 04:00 Pwani, Msindaji Tanzania  0.1
18/01/2023 05:00 Mahajanga, Mahabo Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 03:00 Toamasina, Anoromby Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 10:00 Antsiranana, Amboanio Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 14:00 Toamasina, Mahavanona Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 02:00 Antsiranana, Antsorokaka Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 05:00 Pwani, Kisiju Tanzania  0.1
20/01/2023 19:00 Sofala, Jonja Mozambique  0.1
20/01/2023 02:00 Zambezia, Chimuaza Mozambique  0.1
20/01/2023 18:00 Sofala, Machesse Mozambique  0.1
18/01/2023 07:00 , Maxixe Mozambique  0.1
20/01/2023 16:00 Mahajanga, Ankinganomby Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 23:00 Toamasina, Mahatsara Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 19:00 Toamasina, Marosiky Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 03:00 , Bartolomeu Dias Mozambique  0.1
18/01/2023 02:00 Zambezia, Tomodo Mozambique  0.0
18/01/2023 04:00 , Mocambique Mozambique  0.0
19/01/2023 07:00 Inhambane, Inhassoro Mozambique  0.0
20/01/2023 17:00 Zambezia, Mulia Mozambique  0.0
18/01/2023 03:00 Toamasina, Ambodimanga Madagascar  0.0
18/01/2023 02:00 , Mutiba Mozambique  0.0
18/01/2023 03:00 , Chicoque Mozambique  0.0
20/01/2023 21:00 Toamasina, Antetezambaro Madagascar  0.0
20/01/2023 19:00 Toamasina, Ambila-Lemaitso Madagascar  0.0
20/01/2023 21:00 Toamasina, Tamatave Madagascar  0.0
20/01/2023 19:00 Toamasina, Vohitramposina Madagascar  0.0
20/01/2023 19:00 Toamasina, Ampanotoamaizina Madagascar  0.0
20/01/2023 13:00 Toamasina, Tampina Madagascar  0.0
18/01/2023 05:00 Tanga, Bomalandani Tanzania  0.0
20/01/2023 15:00 Toamasina, Mahanoro Madagascar  0.0
18/01/2023 03:00 , Marivate Mozambique  0.0
18/01/2023 02:00 Toliara, Manambato Madagascar  0.0
20/01/2023 18:00 , Mariano Mozambique  0.0
20/01/2023 19:00 Fianarantsoa, Mangatsiatra Madagascar  0.0
20/01/2023 18:00 Inhambane, Ilha do Bazaruto Asneira Mozambique  0.0
20/01/2023 14:00 Fianarantsoa, Manakara Madagascar  0.0
18/01/2023 00:00 Inhambane, Guinjala Mozambique
18/01/2023 00:00 , Miramar Mozambique
18/01/2023 00:00 Toliara, Beaniky Madagascar
18/01/2023 00:00 Toliara, Mitriaky Madagascar
18/01/2023 00:00 Fianarantsoa, Akondro Madagascar
18/01/2023 00:00 Fianarantsoa, Amboboka Madagascar
18/01/2023 00:00 Fianarantsoa, Manambotra Madagascar
18/01/2023 00:00 Fianarantsoa, Loharano Madagascar
18/01/2023 00:00 Fianarantsoa, Itenina Madagascar
18/01/2023 00:00 Fianarantsoa, Anakitaina Madagascar
18/01/2023 00:00 Fianarantsoa, Mananjary Madagascar
18/01/2023 00:00 , Sainte-Suzanne Reunion
18/01/2023 00:00 , Gambrani Island La Ferme Mauritius
18/01/2023 00:00 , Ile Amsterdam La Roche Godon French Southern and Antarctic Lands