Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for CHENESO-23
in Madagascar
18 Jan 2023 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone CHENESO-23 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Madagascar
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 140 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1.1 m (18 Jan 22:30 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 140 km/h 1.1 m 275 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 151 km/h 1.5 m 905 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 18 Jan 2023 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMadagascar27,832 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 18 Jan 2023 00:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 18 Jan 2023 06:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 18 Jan 2023 12:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 18 Jan 2023 18:00 140 -
- - - - - Madagascar
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Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall

905 mm

Up to 7.5 million can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 18 Jan 2023 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMadagascar481,655 
100-250 mmMadagascar, Mozambique, Malawi, Reunion7,022,369
+
Madagascar6,965,352 
Mozambique3,287 
Malawi47,588 
Reunion6,141 
50-100 mmTanzania, Mauritius, Comoros, Madagascar, Mozambique, Malawi, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Reunion18,932,434
+
Tanzania240,858 
Mauritius1,163,277 
Comoros320,864 
Madagascar8,595,202 
Mozambique1,565,353 
Malawi6,546,861 
Zambia15,734 
Zimbabwe57,864 
Reunion426,419 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 18 Jan 2023 00:00 85 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 18 Jan 2023 06:00 104 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 18 Jan 2023 12:00 192 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 4 18 Jan 2023 18:00 407 7.5 million
- - - Tanzania, Mauritius, Comoros, Madagascar, Mozambique, Malawi, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Reunion




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Antsiranana, Ampana Kanana, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 18/01/2023 07:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 18 Jan 2023 18:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
18/01/2023 07:00 Antsiranana, Ampana Kanana Madagascar  0.3
18/01/2023 03:00 Toamasina, Anantoraka Madagascar  0.2
18/01/2023 07:00 Antsiranana, Ambondrombe Madagascar  0.2
18/01/2023 08:00 Toamasina, Maintimbato Madagascar  0.2
18/01/2023 08:00 Toamasina, Anoromby Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 08:00 Toamasina, Mahavanona Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 11:00 , Nosy Komba Anjiabe Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 07:00 Antsiranana, Amboanio Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 20:00 Toamasina, Manakalana Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 20:00 , Analanampotsy Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 08:00 Antsiranana, Andrapengy Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 00:00 Antsiranana, Nossi-be Andrafia Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 08:00 Antsiranana, Rantranavona Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 22:00 Sofala, Jonja Mozambique  0.1
18/01/2023 11:00 , Nosy Mitsio Ambaramidada Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 08:00 Toamasina, Ile Sainte-marie Ambodifototra Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 11:00 Antsiranana, Andranira Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 07:00 Antsiranana, Ampaha Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 08:00 Toamasina, Manompana Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 08:00 Toamasina, Ivontaka Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 23:00 Zambezia, Chimuaza Mozambique  0.1
19/01/2023 21:00 Sofala, Machesse Mozambique  0.1
18/01/2023 05:00 Mjini-Magharibi (Zanzibar Urban/West), Zanzibar Fumba Tanzania  0.1
20/01/2023 21:00 Zambezia, Tomodo Mozambique  0.1
18/01/2023 13:00 , Maxixe Mozambique  0.1
20/01/2023 21:00 , Mutiba Mozambique  0.1
19/01/2023 22:00 , Bartolomeu Dias Mozambique  0.1
20/01/2023 21:00 Toamasina, Ambodimanga Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 06:00 Toamasina, Mahatsara Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 20:00 Toamasina, Ambila-Lemaitso Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 21:00 Toamasina, Ampanotoamaizina Madagascar  0.0
20/01/2023 21:00 Toamasina, Tamatave Madagascar  0.0
20/01/2023 21:00 Toamasina, Vohitramposina Madagascar  0.0
20/01/2023 21:00 Toamasina, Tampina Madagascar  0.0
19/01/2023 21:00 Inhambane, Inhassoro Mozambique  0.0
19/01/2023 01:00 , Chicoque Mozambique  0.0
20/01/2023 23:00 Toamasina, Marosiky Madagascar  0.0
21/01/2023 00:00 , Mocambique Mozambique  0.0
20/01/2023 21:00 Toamasina, Mahanoro Madagascar  0.0
20/01/2023 00:00 , Marivate Mozambique  0.0
20/01/2023 23:00 , Mariano Mozambique  0.0
20/01/2023 22:00 Fianarantsoa, Mangatsiatra Madagascar  0.0
20/01/2023 21:00 Fianarantsoa, Mananjary Madagascar  0.0
20/01/2023 21:00 Fianarantsoa, Anakitaina Madagascar  0.0
20/01/2023 21:00 Fianarantsoa, Manakara Madagascar  0.0
20/01/2023 21:00 Fianarantsoa, Itenina Madagascar  0.0
20/01/2023 23:00 , Miramar Mozambique  0.0
20/01/2023 21:00 Fianarantsoa, Loharano Madagascar  0.0
20/01/2023 21:00 Toliara, Beaniky Madagascar  0.0
20/01/2023 22:00 Fianarantsoa, Amboboka Madagascar  0.0
20/01/2023 21:00 Fianarantsoa, Manambotra Madagascar  0.0
20/01/2023 21:00 Toliara, Mitriaky Madagascar  0.0
18/01/2023 00:00 Toliara, Manambato Madagascar
18/01/2023 00:00 Fianarantsoa, Akondro Madagascar
18/01/2023 00:00 , Sainte-Suzanne Reunion
18/01/2023 00:00 , Gambrani Island La Ferme Mauritius
18/01/2023 00:00 , Ile Amsterdam La Roche Godon French Southern and Antarctic Lands