Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for CHENESO-23
in Madagascar
20 Jan 2023 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone CHENESO-23 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 0 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (20 Jan 04:45 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 0 km/h 0.5 m 118 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 104 km/h 0.7 m 1041 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

104 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 20 Jan 2023 00:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 17 Jan 2023 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 18 Jan 2023 00:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 18 Jan 2023 12:00 90 -
- - - - - Zambia
GREEN 4 19 Jan 2023 00:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 19 Jan 2023 12:00 65 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 6 20 Jan 2023 00:00 86 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 20 Jan 2023 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
500-750 mmMadagascar20 
250-500 mmMadagascar1,146,347 
100-250 mmComoros, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Reunion12,954,323
+
Malawi71,858 
Mozambique59 
Comoros235,614 
Madagascar12,646,626 
Reunion163 
50-100 mmTanzania, Malawi, Zambia, Mozambique, Comoros, Madagascar, Mayotte, Zimbabwe, Mauritius, Reunion9,831,378
+
Tanzania318,859 
Malawi2,810,258 
Zambia181,910 
Mozambique1,275,367 
Comoros113,250 
Madagascar4,315,682 
Mayotte120,619 
Zimbabwe13,813 
Mauritius564,859 
Reunion116,757 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 17 Jan 2023 12:00 134 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 18 Jan 2023 00:00 174 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 18 Jan 2023 12:00 356 -
- - - - - Seychelles, Madagascar, Reunion
Blue 4 19 Jan 2023 00:00 133 50 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 5 19 Jan 2023 12:00 156 230 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 6 20 Jan 2023 00:00 501 14.1 million
- - Tanzania, Malawi, Zambia, Mozambique, Comoros, Madagascar, Mayotte, Zimbabwe, Mauritius, Reunion




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Mahajanga, Mahabo, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 20/01/2023 04:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 20 Jan 2023 00:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
20/01/2023 04:00 Mahajanga, Mahabo Madagascar  0.2
20/01/2023 03:00 Sofala, Jonja Mozambique  0.1
17/01/2023 19:00 Toamasina, Anantoraka Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 06:00 Mahajanga, Andamoty Madagascar  0.1
17/01/2023 16:00 Mahajanga, Ankinganomby Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 02:00 Toamasina, Mahavanona Madagascar  0.1
17/01/2023 14:00 Toamasina, Maintimbato Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 05:00 Mahajanga, Baly Madagascar  0.1
17/01/2023 14:00 Toamasina, Anoromby Madagascar  0.1
17/01/2023 14:00 Antsiranana, Rantranavona Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 04:00 Sofala, Machesse Mozambique  0.1
18/01/2023 04:00 Zambezia, Chimuaza Mozambique  0.1
17/01/2023 14:00 Antsiranana, Anjanozana Madagascar  0.1
17/01/2023 14:00 Antsiranana, Ampanavoana Madagascar  0.1
17/01/2023 18:00 Toamasina, Mahatsara Madagascar  0.1
17/01/2023 13:00 Toamasina, Manakalana Madagascar  0.1