Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for CHENESO-23
in Madagascar
20 Jan 2023 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone CHENESO-23 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 54 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.6 m (20 Jan 17:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 54 km/h 0.6 m 135 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 104 km/h 0.7 m 1041 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

104 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 20 Jan 2023 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 17 Jan 2023 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 18 Jan 2023 00:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 18 Jan 2023 12:00 90 -
- - - - - Zambia
GREEN 4 19 Jan 2023 00:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 19 Jan 2023 12:00 65 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 6 20 Jan 2023 00:00 - 2 million
Tanzania, Kenya, Seychelles, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Comoros, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, Reunion, South Africa, Eswatini
GREEN 7 20 Jan 2023 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 20 Jan 2023 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
500-750 mmMadagascar3,851 
250-500 mmComoros, Madagascar2,177,044
+
Comoros3,786 
Madagascar2,173,258 
100-250 mmComoros, Madagascar, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Reunion14,128,327
+
Malawi70,084 
Zambia48,277 
Mozambique15,329 
Comoros274,746 
Madagascar13,665,518 
Reunion54,371 
50-100 mmTanzania, Malawi, Zambia, Mozambique, Comoros, Madagascar, Mayotte, Zimbabwe, Mauritius, Reunion15,117,072
+
Tanzania124,501 
Malawi6,424,355 
Zambia1,022,987 
Mozambique3,849,660 
Comoros91,870 
Madagascar2,537,463 
Mayotte240,014 
Zimbabwe22,758 
Mauritius378,859 
Reunion424,600 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 17 Jan 2023 12:00 134 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 18 Jan 2023 00:00 174 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 18 Jan 2023 12:00 356 -
- - - - - Seychelles, Madagascar, Reunion
Blue 4 19 Jan 2023 00:00 133 50 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 5 19 Jan 2023 12:00 156 230 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 6 20 Jan 2023 00:00 118 20 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 7 20 Jan 2023 12:00 640 16.3 million
- - Tanzania, Malawi, Zambia, Mozambique, Comoros, Madagascar, Mayotte, Zimbabwe, Mauritius, Reunion




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Mahajanga, Mahabo, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 20/01/2023 05:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 20 Jan 2023 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
20/01/2023 05:00 Mahajanga, Mahabo Madagascar  0.2
20/01/2023 05:00 Mahajanga, Andamoty Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 06:00 Mahajanga, Ankinganomby Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 01:00 Toamasina, Anantoraka Madagascar  0.1
19/01/2023 16:00 Sofala, Jonja Mozambique  0.1
20/01/2023 04:00 Mahajanga, Baly Madagascar  0.1
19/01/2023 16:00 Sofala, Machesse Mozambique  0.1
20/01/2023 10:00 Toamasina, Maintimbato Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 10:00 Toliara, Saint Augustin Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 10:00 Toamasina, Anoromby Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 10:00 Antsiranana, Rantranavona Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 07:00 Zambezia, Chimuaza Mozambique  0.1
17/01/2023 13:00 Toamasina, Mahavanona Madagascar  0.1
19/01/2023 15:00 Zambezia, Tomodo Mozambique  0.1
19/01/2023 15:00 , Bartolomeu Dias Mozambique  0.1
19/01/2023 18:00 Inhambane, Inhassoro Mozambique  0.1
20/01/2023 11:00 Pwani, Msindaji Tanzania  0.1
20/01/2023 04:00 Nampula, Miaola Mozambique  0.1
20/01/2023 10:00 Toamasina, Mahatsara Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 08:00 , Mocambique Mozambique  0.1
20/01/2023 10:00 Zambezia, Mulia Mozambique  0.1