Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for CHENESO-23
in Madagascar
19 Jan 2023 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone CHENESO-23 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 90 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1.0 m (19 Jan 13:45 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 90 km/h 1.0 m 119 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 151 km/h 1.5 m 905 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

151 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 19 Jan 2023 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 18 Jan 2023 00:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 18 Jan 2023 06:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 18 Jan 2023 12:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 18 Jan 2023 18:00 140 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 19 Jan 2023 00:00 130 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 6 19 Jan 2023 06:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 19 Jan 2023 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 19 Jan 2023 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
500-750 mmMadagascar54,473 
250-500 mmMadagascar1,509,665 
100-250 mmTanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Comoros, Madagascar, Mozambique, Mauritius5,391,912
+
Tanzania10,528 
Zambia752 
Malawi2,061 
Mozambique20,245 
Comoros57,383 
Madagascar4,653,086 
Mauritius647,853 
50-100 mmTanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Comoros, Madagascar, Mayotte, Zimbabwe, Mauritius, Reunion18,088,260
+
Tanzania980,878 
Zambia355,155 
Malawi2,742,596 
Mozambique2,545,028 
Comoros385,329 
Madagascar9,776,908 
Mayotte240,014 
Zimbabwe465,042 
Mauritius582,383 
Reunion14,923 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 18 Jan 2023 00:00 85 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 18 Jan 2023 06:00 104 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 18 Jan 2023 12:00 192 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 4 18 Jan 2023 18:00 275 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 5 19 Jan 2023 00:00 111 -
- - - - - Mozambique, Malawi, Madagascar
Blue 6 19 Jan 2023 06:00 112 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 7 19 Jan 2023 12:00 553 7 million
- - Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Comoros, Madagascar, Mayotte, Zimbabwe, Mauritius, Reunion




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Toamasina, Mahavanona, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 18/01/2023 06:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 19 Jan 2023 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
18/01/2023 06:00 Toamasina, Mahavanona Madagascar  0.2
18/01/2023 03:00 Toamasina, Anantoraka Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 05:00 , Analanampotsy Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 18:00 Mahajanga, Mahabo Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 03:00 Toamasina, Manakalana Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 03:00 Toamasina, Maintimbato Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 02:00 Toamasina, Ile Sainte-marie Ambodifototra Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 04:00 Toamasina, Anoromby Madagascar  0.1
19/01/2023 19:00 Sofala, Jonja Mozambique  0.1
19/01/2023 04:00 Sofala, Machesse Mozambique  0.1
19/01/2023 05:00 Zambezia, Chimuaza Mozambique  0.1
18/01/2023 07:00 , Maxixe Mozambique  0.1
18/01/2023 11:00 Mjini-Magharibi (Zanzibar Urban/West), Zanzibar Fumba Tanzania  0.1
18/01/2023 07:00 , Bartolomeu Dias Mozambique  0.1
20/01/2023 05:00 Tanga, Ushongo Mabaoni Tanzania  0.0
18/01/2023 07:00 , Chicoque Mozambique  0.0
19/01/2023 16:00 Fianarantsoa, Mangatsiatra Madagascar  0.0
20/01/2023 14:00 Fianarantsoa, Manambotra Madagascar  0.0
18/01/2023 00:00 Toliara, Beaniky Madagascar
18/01/2023 00:00 Toliara, Mitriaky Madagascar
18/01/2023 00:00 Toliara, Manambato Madagascar
18/01/2023 00:00 Fianarantsoa, Akondro Madagascar
18/01/2023 00:00 , Gambrani Island La Ferme Mauritius
18/01/2023 00:00 , Ile Amsterdam La Roche Godon French Southern and Antarctic Lands