Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for CHENESO-23
in Madagascar
21 Jan 2023 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone CHENESO-23 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 86 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.7 m (21 Jan 17:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 86 km/h 0.7 m 193 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 104 km/h 0.7 m 1041 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

104 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 21 Jan 2023 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 17 Jan 2023 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 18 Jan 2023 00:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 18 Jan 2023 12:00 90 -
- - - - - Zambia
GREEN 4 19 Jan 2023 00:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 19 Jan 2023 12:00 65 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 6 20 Jan 2023 00:00 - 2 million
Tanzania, Kenya, Seychelles, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Comoros, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, Reunion, South Africa, Eswatini
GREEN 7 20 Jan 2023 12:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 21 Jan 2023 00:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 21 Jan 2023 12:00 86 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 21 Jan 2023 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmComoros, Madagascar1,365,832
+
Comoros55,079 
Madagascar1,310,753 
100-250 mmComoros, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Reunion14,689,004
+
Malawi80,186 
Comoros220,631 
Mozambique01 
Madagascar14,159,898 
Reunion228,285 
50-100 mmTanzania, Malawi, Comoros, Mozambique, Zambia, Madagascar, Mayotte, Zimbabwe, Mauritius, Reunion10,033,221
+
Tanzania82,253 
Malawi1,744,081 
Comoros104,581 
Mozambique2,395,241 
Zambia875,548 
Madagascar3,451,167 
Mayotte19,999 
Zimbabwe584,445 
Mauritius143,034 
Reunion632,868 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 17 Jan 2023 12:00 134 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 18 Jan 2023 00:00 174 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 18 Jan 2023 12:00 356 -
- - - - - Seychelles, Madagascar, Reunion
Blue 4 19 Jan 2023 00:00 133 50 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 5 19 Jan 2023 12:00 156 230 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 6 20 Jan 2023 00:00 118 20 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 7 20 Jan 2023 12:00 135 20 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 8 21 Jan 2023 00:00 136 3 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 9 21 Jan 2023 12:00 431 16.1 million
- - - Tanzania, Malawi, Comoros, Mozambique, Zambia, Madagascar, Mayotte, Zimbabwe, Mauritius, Reunion




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Mahajanga, Mahabo, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 19/01/2023 17:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 21 Jan 2023 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
19/01/2023 17:00 Mahajanga, Mahabo Madagascar  0.2
20/01/2023 00:00 Toamasina, Anantoraka Madagascar  0.2
19/01/2023 19:00 Mahajanga, Baly Madagascar  0.2
20/01/2023 04:00 Mahajanga, Andamoty Madagascar  0.2
19/01/2023 14:00 Zambezia, Chimuaza Mozambique  0.2
19/01/2023 14:00 Sofala, Jonja Mozambique  0.2
20/01/2023 05:00 Mahajanga, Ankinganomby Madagascar  0.1
19/01/2023 15:00 Sofala, Machesse Mozambique  0.1
19/01/2023 14:00 , Bartolomeu Dias Mozambique  0.1
20/01/2023 10:00 Toamasina, Mahavanona Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 00:00 Toamasina, Maintimbato Madagascar  0.1
19/01/2023 14:00 Pwani, Msindaji Tanzania  0.1
19/01/2023 15:00 Zambezia, Tomodo Mozambique  0.1
19/01/2023 14:00 Toliara, Saint Augustin Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 05:00 Toamasina, Anoromby Madagascar  0.1
19/01/2023 14:00 Nampula, Miaola Mozambique  0.1
19/01/2023 18:00 Zambezia, Mulia Mozambique  0.1
19/01/2023 15:00 , Mutiba Mozambique  0.1
19/01/2023 10:00 , Analanampotsy Madagascar  0.1
19/01/2023 16:00 Nampula, Coropoa Mozambique  0.1
20/01/2023 01:00 Antsiranana, Rantranavona Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 02:00 Antsiranana, Antsorokaka Madagascar  0.1
19/01/2023 11:00 Toamasina, Marosiky Madagascar  0.1
19/01/2023 16:00 Toamasina, Manompana Madagascar  0.1
19/01/2023 12:00 Toamasina, Mahatsara Madagascar  0.1
19/01/2023 22:00 Toamasina, Manakalana Madagascar  0.1
19/01/2023 17:00 Nampula, Mosengeri Mozambique  0.1
19/01/2023 23:00 Toamasina, Vohitramposina Madagascar  0.1
19/01/2023 17:00 , Mocambique Mozambique  0.1
19/01/2023 17:00 Toamasina, Mahanoro Madagascar  0.1
19/01/2023 18:00 , Cabaceira Mozambique  0.1
19/01/2023 22:00 Toamasina, Ile Sainte-marie Ambodifototra Madagascar  0.1