Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for FREDDY-23 in Mozambique, Madagascar from 06 Feb 2023 06:00 UTC to 12 Mar 2023 00:00 UTC

12 Mar 2023 12 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC
Primary source
WMO-RSMC La Réunion

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FREDDY-23 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries	Mozambique, Mauritius, Madagascar, Reunion
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	112 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.7 m (11 Mar 22:15 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	112 km/h	0.7 m	1634 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	112 km/h	0.7 m	1634 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

112 km/h

Up to 1.8 million can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 12 Mar 2023 12:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Mozambique, Mauritius, Madagascar, Reunion	1,769,560	+
	Mozambique	193,322
	Mauritius	736,033
	Madagascar	803,487
	Reunion	36,716

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	05 Feb 2023 12:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	06 Feb 2023 00:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	06 Feb 2023 12:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	07 Feb 2023 00:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	07 Feb 2023 12:00	83	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	08 Feb 2023 00:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	08 Feb 2023 12:00	108	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	09 Feb 2023 00:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	09 Feb 2023 12:00	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	10 Feb 2023 00:00	126	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	10 Feb 2023 12:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	11 Feb 2023 00:00	133	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	11 Feb 2023 12:00	115	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	12 Feb 2023 00:00	133	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	12 Feb 2023 12:00	126	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	13 Feb 2023 00:00	151	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	13 Feb 2023 12:00	130	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	14 Feb 2023 00:00	112	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
19	14 Feb 2023 12:00	126	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
20	15 Feb 2023 00:00	133	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
21	15 Feb 2023 12:00	148	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
22	16 Feb 2023 00:00	158	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
23	16 Feb 2023 12:00	162	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
24	17 Feb 2023 00:00	173	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
25	17 Feb 2023 12:00	140	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
26	18 Feb 2023 00:00	162	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
27	18 Feb 2023 12:00	162	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
28	19 Feb 2023 00:00	158	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
29	19 Feb 2023 12:00	194	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
30	20 Feb 2023 00:00	202	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mauritius
31	20 Feb 2023 12:00	205	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mauritius, Reunion
32	21 Feb 2023 00:00	205	-		-	-	-	-	-	Reunion
33	21 Feb 2023 12:00	216	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
34	22 Feb 2023 00:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
35	22 Feb 2023 12:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
36	23 Feb 2023 00:00	83	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
37	23 Feb 2023 12:00	112	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
38	24 Feb 2023 00:00	126	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mozambique
39	24 Feb 2023 12:00	115	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mozambique
40	25 Feb 2023 00:00	104	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
41	25 Feb 2023 12:00	97	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
42	26 Feb 2023 00:00	112	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mozambique
43	26 Feb 2023 12:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
44	27 Feb 2023 00:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
45	27 Feb 2023 12:00	86	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
46	28 Feb 2023 00:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
47	28 Feb 2023 12:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
48	01 Mar 2023 00:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
49	01 Mar 2023 12:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
50	02 Mar 2023 00:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
51	02 Mar 2023 12:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
52	03 Mar 2023 00:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
53	03 Mar 2023 12:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
54	04 Mar 2023 00:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
55	04 Mar 2023 12:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
56	05 Mar 2023 00:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
57	05 Mar 2023 12:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
58	06 Mar 2023 00:00	94	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
59	06 Mar 2023 12:00	83	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
60	07 Mar 2023 00:00	86	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
61	07 Mar 2023 12:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
62	08 Mar 2023 00:00	122	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
63	08 Mar 2023 12:00	122	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
64	09 Mar 2023 00:00	130	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
65	09 Mar 2023 12:00	86	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
66	10 Mar 2023 00:00	97	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
67	10 Mar 2023 12:00	130	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
68	11 Mar 2023 00:00	112	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
69	11 Mar 2023 12:00	97	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mozambique
70	12 Mar 2023 00:00	94	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mozambique
71	12 Mar 2023 12:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

TOP

Level	Country	Population
more than 1000 mm	Indonesia, Malawi, Mozambique	936,516	+
	Indonesia	569,066
	Malawi	113,900
	Mozambique	253,549
750-1000 mm	Indonesia, Malawi, Mozambique	5,814,394	+
	Indonesia	4,295,614
	Malawi	350,111
	Mozambique	1,168,668
500-750 mm	Democratic Republic of the Congo, Indonesia, Burundi, Tanzania, East Timor, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, Reunion, South Africa	82,246,730	+
	Democratic Republic of the Congo	33,998
	Tanzania	2,545
	Indonesia	71,097,221
	Burundi	19,551
	East Timor	46,624
	Malawi	3,795,983
	Mozambique	5,948,321
	Madagascar	1,165,483
	Zimbabwe	43,016
	Reunion	798
	South Africa	93,183
250-500 mm	Democratic Republic of the Congo, Rwanda, Indonesia, Burundi, Tanzania, Zambia, East Timor, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, Comoros, Madagascar, Australia, Zimbabwe, Reunion, Botswana, South Africa, Eswatini, Lesotho	175,138,634	+
	Democratic Republic of the Congo	3,946,206
	Rwanda	479,739
	Tanzania	1,864,428
	Indonesia	114,314,860
	Burundi	1,812,021
	East Timor	507,230
	Zambia	574,223
	Malawi	8,324,273
	Mauritius	64,875
	Mozambique	16,697,916
	Comoros	66,156
	Madagascar	14,469,851
	Australia	1,337
	Zimbabwe	4,445,773
	Botswana	455
	Reunion	282,062
	South Africa	6,147,507
	Eswatini	1,139,715
100-250 mm	Democratic Republic of the Congo, Rwanda, Tanzania, Indonesia, Burundi, Seychelles, East Timor, Zambia, Malawi, Mauritius, Christmas Island, Mozambique, Angola, Comoros, Madagascar, Cocos Islands, Mayotte, Zimbabwe, Australia, Namibia, Botswana, Reunion, South Africa, Eswatini, Lesotho	143,963,022	+
	Democratic Republic of the Congo	25,286,448
	Rwanda	4,303,538
	Tanzania	23,158,843
	Indonesia	7,283,474
	Burundi	9,022,200
	Seychelles	95,471
	East Timor	579,844
	Zambia	14,981,434
	Malawi	4,696,934
	Mauritius	1,208,329
	Christmas Island	2,308
	Mozambique	3,825,327
	Angola	100,878
	Comoros	429,704
	Madagascar	8,571,132
	Cocos Islands	618
	Mayotte	240,014
	Australia	47,566
	Zimbabwe	11,111,751
	Namibia	1,805
	Botswana	674,088
	Reunion	561,529
	South Africa	25,504,458
	Eswatini	145,635
	Lesotho	2,129,680
50-100 mm	Rwanda, Tanzania, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Burundi, Indonesia, Seychelles, Zambia, Mozambique, Comoros, Zimbabwe, Australia, Namibia, Angola, Botswana, Reunion, South Africa	21,547,958	+
	Democratic Republic of the Congo	113,519
	Rwanda	413,198
	Tanzania	8,542,874
	Indonesia	77,203
	Burundi	314,842
	Seychelles	999
	Zambia	508,571
	Mozambique	6,893
	Angola	17,498
	Comoros	292,613
	Australia	25,026
	Zimbabwe	8,082
	Namibia	104,768
	Botswana	1,454,769
	Reunion	16,763
	South Africa	9,650,333

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	05 Feb 2023 12:00	203	-		-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia
2	06 Feb 2023 00:00	94	-		-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia
3	06 Feb 2023 12:00	217	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	07 Feb 2023 00:00	174	-		-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Mozambique
5	07 Feb 2023 12:00	218	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	08 Feb 2023 00:00	379	-		-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, South Africa
7	08 Feb 2023 12:00	228	210 thousand			-	-	-	-	Tanzania, Mozambique, South Africa, Eswatini
8	09 Feb 2023 00:00	229	30 thousand			-	-	-	-	Indonesia, South Africa, Eswatini
9	09 Feb 2023 12:00	310	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
10	10 Feb 2023 00:00	307	-		-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia
11	10 Feb 2023 12:00	207	-		-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Mozambique
12	11 Feb 2023 00:00	256	10 thousand			-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Zimbabwe, Botswana, South Africa, Mozambique, Eswatini
13	11 Feb 2023 12:00	233	40 thousand			-	-	-	-	Indonesia, South Africa
14	12 Feb 2023 00:00	283	-		-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Mozambique
15	12 Feb 2023 12:00	202	-		-	-	-	-	-	South Africa
16	13 Feb 2023 00:00	229	-		-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, East Timor
17	13 Feb 2023 12:00	177	-		-	-	-	-	-	South Africa
18	14 Feb 2023 00:00	185	-		-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia
19	14 Feb 2023 12:00	197	-		-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Mozambique
20	15 Feb 2023 00:00	202	-		-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Mozambique
21	15 Feb 2023 12:00	244	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
22	16 Feb 2023 00:00	241	-		-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Malawi, Mozambique, South Africa
23	16 Feb 2023 12:00	253	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
24	17 Feb 2023 00:00	201	Few people			-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Zambia, Botswana, Eswatini, South Africa
25	17 Feb 2023 12:00	407	-		-	-	-	-	-	Eswatini
26	18 Feb 2023 00:00	230	-		-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Zimbabwe
27	18 Feb 2023 12:00	266	-		-	-	-	-	-	Zimbabwe
28	19 Feb 2023 00:00	142	-		-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Australia, Zimbabwe
29	19 Feb 2023 12:00	156	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia
30	20 Feb 2023 00:00	171	-		-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Zimbabwe
31	20 Feb 2023 12:00	179	40 thousand			-	-	-	-	Reunion
32	21 Feb 2023 00:00	229	-		-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia
33	21 Feb 2023 12:00	288	1.2 million			-	-	-	-	Madagascar
34	22 Feb 2023 00:00	234	4 thousand			-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Madagascar, Mozambique
35	22 Feb 2023 12:00	115	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
36	23 Feb 2023 00:00	133	-		-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Madagascar, Mozambique
37	23 Feb 2023 12:00	281	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
38	24 Feb 2023 00:00	143	2 thousand			-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Mozambique
39	24 Feb 2023 12:00	163	30 thousand			-	-	-	-	Mozambique
40	25 Feb 2023 00:00	156	Few people			-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Mozambique
41	25 Feb 2023 12:00	535	90 thousand				-	-	-	Australia, Mozambique
42	26 Feb 2023 00:00	464	50 thousand				-	-	-	Indonesia, East Timor, Australia, Mozambique
43	26 Feb 2023 12:00	608	20 thousand				-	-	-	Indonesia, East Timor, Mozambique, Zimbabwe
44	27 Feb 2023 00:00	910	20 thousand			-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Australia, Mozambique, Zimbabwe
45	27 Feb 2023 12:00	229	230 thousand			-	-	-	-	Democratic Republic of the Congo, Australia, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, South Africa
46	28 Feb 2023 00:00	215	1 thousand			-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, South Africa
47	28 Feb 2023 12:00	432	30 thousand			-	-	-	-	Mozambique, South Africa
48	01 Mar 2023 00:00	170	-		-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Mozambique
49	01 Mar 2023 12:00	265	2.1 million				-	-	-	Indonesia, Mozambique
50	02 Mar 2023 00:00	172	-		-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Mozambique
51	02 Mar 2023 12:00	145	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
52	03 Mar 2023 00:00	301	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
53	03 Mar 2023 12:00	151	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
54	04 Mar 2023 00:00	162	-		-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Malawi, Tanzania
55	04 Mar 2023 12:00	311	50 thousand			-	-	-	-	Madagascar
56	05 Mar 2023 00:00	180	20 thousand			-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Madagascar, Mauritius
57	05 Mar 2023 12:00	235	5 thousand			-	-	-	-	East Timor, Madagascar
58	06 Mar 2023 00:00	177	10 thousand			-	-	-	-	Madagascar
59	06 Mar 2023 12:00	182	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
60	07 Mar 2023 00:00	224	-		-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Madagascar
61	07 Mar 2023 12:00	194	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
62	08 Mar 2023 00:00	346	-		-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia
63	08 Mar 2023 12:00	354	-		-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Madagascar
64	09 Mar 2023 00:00	280	10 thousand			-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Madagascar
65	09 Mar 2023 12:00	229	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
66	10 Mar 2023 00:00	357	-		-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia
67	10 Mar 2023 12:00	478	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
68	11 Mar 2023 00:00	322	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mozambique
69	11 Mar 2023 12:00	259	420 thousand			-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Mozambique
70	12 Mar 2023 00:00	237	1.3 million			-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Mozambique, Malawi, South Africa
71	12 Mar 2023 12:00	818	13.8 million						-	Democratic Republic of the Congo, Rwanda, Tanzania, Indonesia, Burundi, Zambia, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, South Africa

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.7 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 12 Mar 2023 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
0.5 - 1.0 m	Tanzania, Mozambique, Australia, Madagascar	288,398	+
	Tanzania	13,551
	Madagascar	68,765
	Australia	765
	Mozambique	205,315
0.25 - 0.5 m	Indonesia, Kenya, Seychelles, Tanzania, East Timor, Madagascar, Australia, Mozambique, South Africa	1,617,816	+
	Indonesia	1,028,135
	Kenya	46,951
	Seychelles	12,560
	Tanzania	50,185
	East Timor	4,826
	Madagascar	275,850
	Australia	2,783
	Mozambique	183,254
	South Africa	13,269

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 12 Mar 2023 12:00 UTC

Impact

GDACS Score

Wind

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Wind Impact Timeline

Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Rain Impact Timeline

StormSurge

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations