Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for MAWAR-23
in Guam
25 May 2023 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MAWAR-23 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, Micronesia
Exposed population 170 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 245 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.6 m (20 May 21:15 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Guam)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 245 km/h 0.6 m 964 mm 2.5
GFS Overall 245 km/h 0.6 m 964 mm 2.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

245 km/h

Up to 170 thousand in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 25 May 2023 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 2Guam29 
CAT. 1Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, Micronesia172,510
+
Northern Mariana Islands2,567 
Guam169,855 
Micronesia87 
Tropical StormNorthern Mariana Islands, Micronesia57,283
+
Northern Mariana Islands52,502 
Micronesia4,780 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 20 May 2023 00:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 20 May 2023 06:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 20 May 2023 12:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 20 May 2023 18:00 108 -
- - - - - Micronesia
GREEN 5 21 May 2023 00:00 112 -
- - - - - Micronesia
GREEN 6 21 May 2023 06:00 115 -
- - - - - Micronesia
GREEN 7 21 May 2023 12:00 126 -
- - - - - Micronesia
GREEN 8 21 May 2023 18:00 155 -
- - - - - Micronesia
GREEN 9 22 May 2023 00:00 151 -
- - - - - Micronesia
GREEN 10 22 May 2023 06:00 166 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 22 May 2023 12:00 155 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 22 May 2023 18:00 151 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 23 May 2023 00:00 173 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 23 May 2023 06:00 187 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 23 May 2023 12:00 216 -
- - - - - Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
GREEN 16 23 May 2023 18:00 205 -
- - - - - Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
GREEN 17 24 May 2023 00:00 166 -
- - - - - Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
ORANGE 18 24 May 2023 06:00 140 150 thousand
- - - - Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
ORANGE 19 24 May 2023 12:00 158 170 thousand
- - - Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
GREEN 20 24 May 2023 18:00 169 2 thousand
- - - - Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
GREEN 21 25 May 2023 00:00 187 -
- - - - - Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
GREEN 22 25 May 2023 06:00 191 -
- - - - - Guam
GREEN 23 25 May 2023 12:00 202 - - - - - - -
GREEN 24 25 May 2023 18:00 245 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 25 May 2023 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
500-750 mmGuam, Micronesia58,349
+
Guam58,261 
Micronesia87 
250-500 mmGuam, Micronesia113,086
+
Guam111,623 
Micronesia1,462 
100-250 mmChina, Taiwan, Philippines, Northern Mariana Islands, Micronesia, Palau, Malaysia, Indonesia17,638,651
+
China1,563,230 
Taiwan3,875 
Philippines15,742,357 
Northern Mariana Islands2,567 
Micronesia51,131 
Palau1,762 
Malaysia56,009 
Indonesia217,717 
50-100 mmChina, Japan, Taiwan, Philippines, Northern Mariana Islands, Micronesia, Palau, Malaysia, Brunei, Indonesia132,900,907
+
China51,155,128 
Japan105,641 
Taiwan4,526,036 
Philippines72,873,958 
Northern Mariana Islands52,502 
Micronesia8,170 
Palau19,528 
Malaysia2,803,086 
Brunei323,023 
Indonesia1,033,830 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 20 May 2023 00:00 153 -
- - - - - Micronesia
Blue 2 20 May 2023 06:00 179 -
- - - - - Philippines
Blue 3 20 May 2023 12:00 110 -
- - - - - Micronesia
Blue 4 20 May 2023 18:00 210 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 21 May 2023 00:00 203 -
- - - - - Micronesia
Blue 6 21 May 2023 06:00 160 -
- - - - - Micronesia
Blue 7 21 May 2023 12:00 215 Few people -
- - - - Micronesia
Blue 8 21 May 2023 18:00 162 Few people -
- - - - Micronesia
Blue 9 22 May 2023 00:00 180 -
- - - - - Japan
Blue 10 22 May 2023 06:00 275 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 22 May 2023 12:00 152 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 22 May 2023 18:00 157 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 23 May 2023 00:00 186 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 23 May 2023 06:00 182 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 23 May 2023 12:00 278 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 23 May 2023 18:00 306 - - - - - - -
Blue 17 24 May 2023 00:00 178 - - - - - - -
Blue 18 24 May 2023 06:00 186 110 thousand
- - - - Guam, Malaysia
Blue 19 24 May 2023 12:00 295 170 thousand
- - - Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Blue 20 24 May 2023 18:00 246 -
- - - - - Guam
Blue 21 25 May 2023 00:00 188 - - - - - - -
Blue 22 25 May 2023 06:00 199 - - - - - - -
Blue 23 25 May 2023 12:00 213 - - - - - - -
Blue 24 25 May 2023 18:00 574 3 thousand
- - - - China, Philippines, Micronesia, Indonesia




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.6 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 25 May 2023 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
0.5 - 1.0 mChina, Philippines290,729
+
China270,088 
Philippines20,640 
0.25 - 0.5 mChina, Taiwan, Philippines, Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, Malaysia, Brunei, Indonesia1,816,705
+
China1,142,570 
Taiwan4,831 
Philippines659,402 
Guam2,754 
Malaysia6,300 
Brunei826 
Indonesia20 

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 25 May 2023 18:00 UTC