The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the
regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected
by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the
forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down.
This report is for advisory number 31 of tropical cyclone BERGUITTA-18 issued at 20 Jan 2018 6:00:00 (GDACS Event ID 1000432). However, the calculation for advisory number is not completed. Therefore, the latest available calculation is shown. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation.
Summary
| Population affected by cyclone-strength winds (>120km/h): | No People |
| Saffir-Simpson Category: | Tropical storm |
| Maximum sustained wind speed: | 76 Km/h |
| he maximum Storm surge height is: | 
1.0m
in Ambalabao, Madagascar.
|
Storm surge
View animation and affected locations in an interactive map: open
 Storm surge maximum height GFS ( Source: JRC) |
 Max windspeed GFS ( Source: ECMWF) |
Evolution
| Legend |
| people affected <=10000 |
| people affected >10000 and <100000 |
| people affected >100000 |
| Calculation | Alert color | Date (UTC) | Wind speed | Population affected
winds(>120km/h) | TS | CAT. 1 | CAT. 2 | CAT. 3 | CAT. 4 | CAT. 5 | Countries |
| 1 | | 20180112.18 | 78 km/h (49 mph) | No people | | | | | | | Mauritius |
| 2 | | 20180113.00 | 76 km/h (47 mph) | No people | | | | | | | Mauritius |
| 3 | | 20180113.06 | 73 km/h (45 mph) | No people | | | | | | | Mauritius |
| 4 | | 20180113.12 | 72 km/h (44 mph) | No people | | | | | | | Mauritius |
| 5 | | 20180113.18 | 75 km/h (46 mph) | No people | | | | | | | Mauritius |
| 6 | | 20180114.00 | 75 km/h (46 mph) | No people | | | | | | | Mauritius |
| 7 | | 20180114.06 | 108 km/h (67 mph) | No people | | | | | | | Mauritius |
| 8 | | 20180114.12 | 140 km/h (87 mph) | 120 thousand | | | | | | | Mauritius |
| 9 | | 20180114.18 | 158 km/h (98 mph) | 840 thousand | | | | | | | Mauritius, Reunion |
| 10 | | 20180115.00 | 154 km/h (95 mph) | 540 thousand | | | | | | | Mauritius, Reunion |
| 11 | | 20180115.06 | 153 km/h (95 mph) | 1.6 million | | | | | | | Mauritius, Reunion |
| 12 | | 20180115.12 | 168 km/h (104 mph) | 1.1 million | | | | | | | Mauritius, Reunion |
| 13 | | 20180115.18 | 146 km/h (90 mph) | 1 million | | | | | | | Mauritius, Reunion |
| 14 | | 20180116.00 | 134 km/h (83 mph) | 660 thousand | | | | | | | Mauritius, Reunion |
| 15 | | 20180116.06 | 115 km/h (71 mph) | No people | | | | | | | Mauritius, Reunion |
| 16 | | 20180116.12 | 118 km/h (73 mph) | No people | | | | | | | Mauritius, Reunion |
| 17 | | 20180116.18 | 116 km/h (72 mph) | No people | | | | | | | Mauritius, Reunion |
| 18 | | 20180117.00 | 118 km/h (73 mph) | No people | | | | | | | Mauritius, Reunion |
| 19 | | 20180117.06 | 72 km/h (44 mph) | No people | | | | | | | Mauritius, Reunion |
| 20 | | 20180117.12 | 129 km/h (80 mph) | No people affected | | | | | | | |
| 21 | | 20180117.18 | 78 km/h (48 mph) | No people | | | | | | | Mauritius, Reunion |
| 22 | | 20180118.00 | 85 km/h (53 mph) | No people | | | | | | | Mauritius, Reunion |
| 23 | | 20180118.06 | 75 km/h (46 mph) | No people | | | | | | | Mauritius, Reunion |
| 24 | | 20180118.12 | 68 km/h (42 mph) | No people | | | | | | | Mauritius, Reunion |
| 25 | | 20180118.18 | 114 km/h (71 mph) | No people | | | | | | | |
| 26 | | 20180119.00 | 114 km/h (70 mph) | No people | | | | | | | |
| 27 | | 20180119.06 | 117 km/h (73 mph) | No people | | | | | | | |
| 28 | | 20180119.12 | 114 km/h (71 mph) | No people | | | | | | | |
| 29 | | 20180119.18 | 114 km/h (71 mph) | No people | | | | | | | |
| 30 | | 20180120.00 | 117 km/h (72 mph) | No people | | | | | | | |
| 31 | | 20180120.06 | 110 km/h (68 mph) | No people | | | | | | | |
| 32 | | 20180120.12 | 109 km/h (67 mph) | No people | | | | | | | |
| 33 | | 20180120.18 | 110 km/h (68 mph) | No people | | | | | | | |
| 34 | | 20180121.00 | 112 km/h (69 mph) | No people | | | | | | | |
| 35 | | 20180121.06 | 110 km/h (68 mph) | No people | | | | | | | |
| 36 | | 20180121.12 | 107 km/h (66 mph) | No people | | | | | | | |
| 37 | | 20180121.18 | 110 km/h (68 mph) | No people | | | | | | | |
Affected locations
| Alert |
Date (UTC) |
Name |
Country |
Storm surge height (m)
|
|
14 Jan 2018 10:00 |
Ambalabao
|
Madagascar |
1.0 |
|
|
14 Jan 2018 10:00 |
Bevatry
|
Madagascar |
1.0 |
|
|
14 Jan 2018 10:00 |
Kamendriky
|
Madagascar |
1.0 |
|
14 Jan 2018 15:45 |
Ankerefo
|
Madagascar |
0.8 |
|
|
14 Jan 2018 15:45 |
Marofototra
|
Madagascar |
0.8 |
|
|
14 Jan 2018 15:45 |
Voalavo
|
Madagascar |
0.8 |
|
|
14 Jan 2018 13:45 |
Sadani
|
Tanzania |
0.8 |
|
|
14 Jan 2018 15:45 |
Belavenoka
|
Madagascar |
0.8 |
|
|
13 Jan 2018 08:15 |
Voloina
|
Madagascar |
0.8 |
|
|
13 Jan 2018 08:15 |
Manambia
|
Madagascar |
0.8 |
|
|
13 Jan 2018 08:15 |
Anantoraka
|
Madagascar |
0.8 |
|
|
13 Jan 2018 08:15 |
Maroantsetra
|
Madagascar |
0.8 |
|
|
13 Jan 2018 08:15 |
Andranofotsy
|
Madagascar |
0.8 |
|
|
13 Jan 2018 08:15 |
Mahalevona
|
Madagascar |
0.8 |
Locations affected by Storm surge (15 of 790)
Calculation based on advisory number of 13 Jan 2018 00:00.
(Simulation using minute resolution)
See full locations list (RSS)
More information
The atmospheric forcing included in the storm surge model are the pressure drop and the wind-water friction.
The effects of the short waves induced by the wind (wave setup) and the precipitations are not yet implemented in the model.
For a full list of available products related to this event, please refer to the GDACS Resources page.
