Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for MANGKHUT-18
in China, Philippines, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
alertimage

Green alert for storm surge impact based on HWRF source

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down.

This report is for advisory number 32 of tropical cyclone MANGKHUT-18 issued at 14 Sep 2018 18:00:00 (GDACS Event ID 1000498). However, the calculation for advisory number is not completed. Therefore, the latest available calculation is shown. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation.

Summary

Population affected by cyclone-strength winds (>120km/h):160 thousand
Saffir-Simpson Category: Category 5
Maximum sustained wind speed: 257 Km/h
he maximum Storm surge height is:  0.6m in Songsong, Northern Mariana Islands.

Storm surge

View animation and affected locations in an interactive map: open

Storm surge maximum height
Storm surge maximum height (Source: JRC)
Max windspeed
Max windspeed (Source: ECMWF)

Evolution

Legend
people affected <=10000
people affected >10000 and <100000
people affected >100000


Calculation Alert color Date (UTC) Wind speed Population affected
winds(>120km/h)
TS CAT. 1 CAT. 2 CAT. 3 CAT. 4 CAT. 5 Countries
1
GREEN
20180907.00 169 km/h (105 mph) No people affected
2
GREEN
20180907.06 212 km/h (131 mph) No people affected
Japan
3
GREEN
20180907.12 229 km/h (142 mph) No people affected
4
GREEN
20180907.18 245 km/h (152 mph) No people affected
Taiwan, Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
5
RED
20180908.00 241 km/h (149 mph) 160 thousand
Taiwan, Northern Mariana Islands, Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
6
RED
20180908.06 250 km/h (155 mph) 110 thousand
Taiwan, Philippines, Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
7
RED
20180908.12 223 km/h (138 mph) 50 thousand
Taiwan, Philippines, Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
8
RED
20180908.18 257 km/h (159 mph) 160 thousand
Taiwan, Philippines, Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
9
RED
20180909.00 254 km/h (157 mph) 60 thousand
Taiwan, Philippines, Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
10
GREEN
20180909.06 259 km/h (160 mph) 2 thousand
Taiwan, Philippines, Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
11
RED
20180909.12 249 km/h (154 mph) 50 thousand
Taiwan, Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
12
GREEN
20180909.18 244 km/h (151 mph) 1 thousand
Taiwan, Philippines, Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
13
GREEN
20180910.00 242 km/h (150 mph) No people affected
Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
14
GREEN
20180910.06 247 km/h (153 mph) 1 thousand
China, Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
15
GREEN
20180910.12 249 km/h (154 mph) 4 thousand
China, Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
16
GREEN
20180910.18 233 km/h (144 mph) No people affected
Vietnam, China
17
GREEN
20180911.00 253 km/h (157 mph) No people affected
Vietnam, China
18
GREEN
20180911.06 259 km/h (160 mph) No people affected
Taiwan, Philippines
19
RED
20180911.12 258 km/h (160 mph) 160 thousand
Taiwan, Philippines
20
RED
20180911.18 265 km/h (164 mph) 390 thousand
Taiwan, Philippines
21
RED
20180912.00 279 km/h (173 mph) 920 thousand
China, Taiwan, Philippines
22
RED
20180912.06 276 km/h (171 mph) 930 thousand
Taiwan, China, Philippines
23
RED
20180912.12 328 km/h (203 mph) 2.7 million
China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Macau, Philippines, Taiwan, Philippines
24
RED
20180912.18 415 km/h (257 mph) 5.6 million
China, Taiwan, Japan, Hong Kong, Macau, Philippines, China, Taiwan, Philippines, Taiwan, China, Philippines

Affected locations

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
10 Sep 2018 09:00 Songsong Northern Mariana Islands  0.6
10 Sep 2018 09:00 Rota Northern Mariana Islands  0.6
10 Sep 2018 09:00 Sinapalo Northern Mariana Islands  0.6
10 Sep 2018 09:00 Teteto Northern Mariana Islands  0.6
10 Sep 2018 09:00 Potts Junction Guam  0.6
10 Sep 2018 09:00 Upi Guam  0.6
10 Sep 2018 12:00 Piti Guam  0.5
10 Sep 2018 08:45 Harmon Village Guam  0.5
10 Sep 2018 08:45 Oceanview Guam  0.5
10 Sep 2018 08:45 Dededo Guam  0.5
10 Sep 2018 08:45 South Acres Guam  0.5
10 Sep 2018 08:45 Ipapao Guam  0.5
10 Sep 2018 08:45 Perez Acres Guam  0.5
10 Sep 2018 08:45 Spring Hill Subdivision Guam  0.5
Locations affected by Storm surge (15 of 1122)
Calculation based on advisory number of 08 Sep 2018 18:00.
(Simulation using minute resolution)

See full locations list (RSS)

More information

The atmospheric forcing included in the storm surge model are the pressure drop and the wind-water friction. The effects of the short waves induced by the wind (wave setup) and the precipitations are not yet implemented in the model.

  • Interactive map: open

For a full list of available products related to this event, please refer to the GDACS Resources page.