Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for MANGKHUT-18
in China, Philippines, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Viet Nam, Laos, Myanmar
alertimage

Green alert for storm surge impact based on ECMWF source

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down.

This report is for advisory number 39 of tropical cyclone MANGKHUT-18 issued at 16 Sep 2018 12:00:00 (GDACS Event ID 1000498). However, the calculation for advisory number is not completed. Therefore, the latest available calculation is shown. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation.

Summary

Population affected by cyclone-strength winds (>120km/h):No people affected
Saffir-Simpson Category: Category 3
Maximum sustained wind speed: 191 Km/h
he maximum Storm surge height is:  0.4m in Cabag, Philippines.

Storm surge

View animation and affected locations in an interactive map: open

Storm surge maximum height ECMWF
Storm surge maximum height ECMWF (Source: JRC)
Max windspeed ECMWF
Max windspeed ECMWF (Source: ECMWF)

Evolution

Legend
people affected <=10000
people affected >10000 and <100000
people affected >100000


Calculation Alert color Date (UTC) Wind speed Population affected
winds(>120km/h)
TS CAT. 1 CAT. 2 CAT. 3 CAT. 4 CAT. 5 Countries
1
GREEN
20180906.12 0 km/h (0 mph) No people
2
GREEN
20180907.00 108 km/h (67 mph) No people
Taiwan
3
GREEN
20180907.12 112 km/h (69 mph) No people
4
GREEN
20180908.00 133 km/h (83 mph) No people affected
Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
5
GREEN
20180908.12 143 km/h (89 mph) No people affected
Taiwan, Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
6
GREEN
20180909.00 169 km/h (105 mph) No people affected
Taiwan, Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
7
GREEN
20180909.12 191 km/h (118 mph) No people affected
Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
8
GREEN
20180910.00 178 km/h (110 mph) Few people
Taiwan, China, Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
9
GREEN
20180910.12 201 km/h (125 mph) No people affected
Taiwan, China, Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
10
GREEN
20180911.00 186 km/h (115 mph) No people affected
China
11
GREEN
20180911.12 188 km/h (116 mph) No people affected
China, Philippines
12
RED
20180912.00 214 km/h (133 mph) 160 thousand
China, Philippines
13
GREEN
20180912.12 194 km/h (120 mph) 20 thousand
Philippines
14
GREEN
20180913.00 182 km/h (113 mph) Few people
China, Hong Kong, Philippines
15
RED
20180913.12 183 km/h (113 mph) 150 thousand
Taiwan, China, Hong Kong, Macau, Philippines, China, Philippines
16
RED
20180914.00 196 km/h (121 mph) 230 thousand
China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Macau, Vietnam, Philippines, Hong Kong, China, Macau, Philippines
17
RED
20180914.12 198 km/h (123 mph) 530 thousand
China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Macau, Vietnam, Philippines, China, Hong Kong, Macau, Philippines
18
GREEN
20180915.00 146 km/h (91 mph) 50 thousand
China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Macau, Philippines, China, Hong Kong
19
GREEN
20180915.12 134 km/h (83 mph) Few people
China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Macau, Philippines
20
GREEN
20180916.00 132 km/h (82 mph) Few people
China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Macau, China, Hong Kong
21
GREEN
20180916.12 86 km/h (54 mph) No people
China, Hong Kong, Macau

Affected locations

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
10 Sep 2018 13:45 Cabag Philippines  0.4
10 Sep 2018 13:45 Atimonan Philippines  0.4
10 Sep 2018 13:45 Pag-aguasan Philippines  0.4
10 Sep 2018 13:45 Concepcion Philippines  0.4
10 Sep 2018 13:45 Alabat Philippines  0.4
10 Sep 2018 13:45 Mascarina Philippines  0.4
10 Sep 2018 13:45 Apad Philippines  0.4
10 Sep 2018 13:45 Gumaca Philippines  0.4
10 Sep 2018 23:30 Argosino Philippines  0.4
10 Sep 2018 13:30 Polillo Philippines  0.4
10 Sep 2018 13:30 Bisliang Philippines  0.4
10 Sep 2018 13:30 Cabungalunan Philippines  0.4
10 Sep 2018 13:30 Abucay Philippines  0.4
10 Sep 2018 13:30 Calutcot Philippines  0.4
Locations affected by Storm surge (15 of 1401)
Calculation based on advisory number of 09 Sep 2018 12:00.
(Simulation using minute resolution)

See full locations list (RSS)

More information

The atmospheric forcing included in the storm surge model are the pressure drop and the wind-water friction. The effects of the short waves induced by the wind (wave setup) and the precipitations are not yet implemented in the model.

  • Interactive map: open

For a full list of available products related to this event, please refer to the GDACS Resources page.