The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the
regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected
by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the
forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down.
This report is for advisory number 39 of tropical cyclone MANGKHUT-18 issued at 16 Sep 2018 12:00:00 (GDACS Event ID 1000498). However, the calculation for advisory number is not completed. Therefore, the latest available calculation is shown. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation.
Summary
| Population affected by cyclone-strength winds (>120km/h): | 930 thousand |
| Saffir-Simpson Category: | Category 5 |
| Maximum sustained wind speed: | 276 Km/h |
| he maximum Storm surge height is: | 
1.6m
in Balza, Philippines.
|
Storm surge
View animation and affected locations in an interactive map: open
 Storm surge maximum height HWRF ( Source: JRC) |
 Max windspeed HWRF ( Source: ECMWF) |
Evolution
| Legend |
| people affected <=10000 |
| people affected >10000 and <100000 |
| people affected >100000 |
| Calculation | Alert color | Date (UTC) | Wind speed | Population affected
winds(>120km/h) | TS | CAT. 1 | CAT. 2 | CAT. 3 | CAT. 4 | CAT. 5 | Countries |
| 1 | | 20180907.00 | 169 km/h (105 mph) | No people affected | | | | | | | |
| 2 | | 20180907.06 | 212 km/h (131 mph) | No people affected | | | | | | | Japan |
| 3 | | 20180907.12 | 229 km/h (142 mph) | No people affected | | | | | | | |
| 4 | | 20180907.18 | 245 km/h (152 mph) | No people affected | | | | | | | Taiwan, Northern Mariana Islands, Guam |
| 5 | | 20180908.00 | 241 km/h (149 mph) | 160 thousand | | | | | | | Taiwan, Northern Mariana Islands, Northern Mariana Islands, Guam |
| 6 | | 20180908.06 | 250 km/h (155 mph) | 110 thousand | | | | | | | Taiwan, Philippines, Northern Mariana Islands, Guam |
| 7 | | 20180908.12 | 223 km/h (138 mph) | 50 thousand | | | | | | | Taiwan, Philippines, Northern Mariana Islands, Guam |
| 8 | | 20180908.18 | 257 km/h (159 mph) | 160 thousand | | | | | | | Taiwan, Philippines, Northern Mariana Islands, Guam |
| 9 | | 20180909.00 | 254 km/h (157 mph) | 60 thousand | | | | | | | Taiwan, Philippines, Northern Mariana Islands, Guam |
| 10 | | 20180909.06 | 259 km/h (160 mph) | 2 thousand | | | | | | | Taiwan, Philippines, Northern Mariana Islands, Guam |
| 11 | | 20180909.12 | 249 km/h (154 mph) | 50 thousand | | | | | | | Taiwan, Northern Mariana Islands, Guam |
| 12 | | 20180909.18 | 244 km/h (151 mph) | 1 thousand | | | | | | | Taiwan, Philippines, Northern Mariana Islands, Guam |
| 13 | | 20180910.00 | 242 km/h (150 mph) | No people affected | | | | | | | Northern Mariana Islands, Guam |
| 14 | | 20180910.06 | 247 km/h (153 mph) | 1 thousand | | | | | | | China, Northern Mariana Islands, Guam |
| 15 | | 20180910.12 | 249 km/h (154 mph) | 4 thousand | | | | | | | China, Northern Mariana Islands, Guam |
| 16 | | 20180910.18 | 233 km/h (144 mph) | No people affected | | | | | | | Vietnam, China |
| 17 | | 20180911.00 | 253 km/h (157 mph) | No people affected | | | | | | | Vietnam, China |
| 18 | | 20180911.06 | 259 km/h (160 mph) | No people affected | | | | | | | Taiwan, Philippines |
| 19 | | 20180911.12 | 258 km/h (160 mph) | 160 thousand | | | | | | | Taiwan, Philippines |
| 20 | | 20180911.18 | 265 km/h (164 mph) | 390 thousand | | | | | | | Taiwan, Philippines |
| 21 | | 20180912.00 | 279 km/h (173 mph) | 920 thousand | | | | | | | China, Taiwan, Philippines |
| 22 | | 20180912.06 | 276 km/h (171 mph) | 930 thousand | | | | | | | Taiwan, China, Philippines |
| 23 | | 20180912.12 | 328 km/h (203 mph) | 2.7 million | | | | | | | China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Macau, Philippines, Taiwan, Philippines |
| 24 | | 20180912.18 | 415 km/h (257 mph) | 5.6 million | | | | | | | China, Taiwan, Japan, Hong Kong, Macau, Philippines, China, Taiwan, Philippines, Taiwan, China, Philippines |
| 25 | | 20180913.00 | 270 km/h (167 mph) | 2.8 million | | | | | | | China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Macau, Philippines, China, Hong Kong, Philippines |
| 26 | | 20180913.06 | 271 km/h (168 mph) | 11 million | | | | | | | China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Philippines, China, Hong Kong, Philippines, Hong Kong, China, Macau, Philippines, China, Philippines |
| 27 | | 20180913.12 | 359 km/h (222 mph) | 43.3 million | | | | | | | China, Taiwan, Vietnam, Philippines, China, Hong Kong, Philippines, Hong Kong, China, Macau, Philippines, China, Philippines |
| 28 | | 20180913.18 | 276 km/h (171 mph) | 14.7 million | | | | | | | China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Vietnam, Philippines, China, Hong Kong, Philippines, China, Hong Kong, Macau, Philippines |
| 29 | | 20180914.00 | 285 km/h (177 mph) | 14 million | | | | | | | China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Vietnam, Philippines, China, Hong Kong, Macau, Philippines, China, Hong Kong, Philippines, Hong Kong, China, Philippines |
| 30 | | 20180914.06 | 281 km/h (174 mph) | 25.8 million | | | | | | | China, Taiwan, Vietnam, Philippines, China, Hong Kong, Macau, Philippines, China, Hong Kong, Philippines |
| 31 | | 20180914.12 | 263 km/h (163 mph) | 15.7 million | | | | | | | China, Taiwan, Vietnam, Hong Kong, Philippines, China, Hong Kong, Macau, Philippines, China, Hong Kong, Philippines, Hong Kong, China, Philippines |
| 32 | | 20180914.18 | 271 km/h (168 mph) | 18.1 million | | | | | | | China, Taiwan, Vietnam, Hong Kong, Philippines, Taiwan, China, Hong Kong, Philippines, Hong Kong, China, Macau, Philippines, China, Philippines |
| 33 | | 20180915.00 | 258 km/h (160 mph) | 15.6 million | | | | | | | China, Taiwan, Vietnam, Hong Kong, Philippines, China, Hong Kong, Macau, Philippines, Hong Kong, China, Philippines |
| 34 | | 20180915.06 | 201 km/h (125 mph) | 14.4 million | | | | | | | China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Vietnam, Philippines, China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Macau, Philippines, China, Hong Kong, Macau, Philippines |
| 35 | | 20180915.12 | 197 km/h (122 mph) | 15.3 million | | | | | | | China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Vietnam, Philippines, Taiwan, China, Hong Kong, Macau, Philippines, Hong Kong, China |
| 36 | | 20180915.18 | 165 km/h (102 mph) | 5.3 million | | | | | | | China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Macau, Vietnam, Philippines, China, Hong Kong, Macau |
| 37 | | 20180916.00 | 162 km/h (100 mph) | 5.4 million | | | | | | | China, Vietnam, Taiwan, Hong Kong, China, Hong Kong, Macau |
| 38 | | 20180916.06 | 178 km/h (110 mph) | 12 million | | | | | | | China, Vietnam, Hong Kong, Macau, China, Hong Kong |
Affected locations
| Alert |
Date (UTC) |
Name |
Country |
Storm surge height (m)
|
|
14 Sep 2018 15:00 |
Balza
|
Philippines |
1.6 |
|
|
14 Sep 2018 15:00 |
Buguey
|
Philippines |
1.6 |
|
|
14 Sep 2018 15:00 |
Gonzaga
|
Philippines |
1.6 |
|
|
14 Sep 2018 15:00 |
Bawa
|
Philippines |
1.6 |
|
|
14 Sep 2018 15:00 |
Cabiraoan
|
Philippines |
1.6 |
|
|
14 Sep 2018 15:15 |
Punta
|
Philippines |
1.6 |
|
|
14 Sep 2018 15:00 |
Casambalangan
|
Philippines |
1.5 |
|
|
14 Sep 2018 15:00 |
San Vincente
|
Philippines |
1.5 |
|
|
14 Sep 2018 15:15 |
Aparri
|
Philippines |
1.5 |
|
|
14 Sep 2018 15:15 |
Alilinu
|
Philippines |
1.5 |
|
|
14 Sep 2018 15:30 |
Linao
|
Philippines |
1.4 |
|
|
14 Sep 2018 15:30 |
Bisagu
|
Philippines |
1.4 |
|
|
14 Sep 2018 18:45 |
Abulug
|
Philippines |
1.1 |
|
|
14 Sep 2018 18:45 |
Cabuluan
|
Philippines |
1.1 |
Locations affected by Storm surge (15 of 1931)
Calculation based on advisory number of 12 Sep 2018 06:00.
(Simulation using minute resolution)
See full locations list (RSS)
More information
The atmospheric forcing included in the storm surge model are the pressure drop and the wind-water friction.
The effects of the short waves induced by the wind (wave setup) and the precipitations are not yet implemented in the model.
For a full list of available products related to this event, please refer to the GDACS Resources page.
