WTPZ44 KNHC 040903 RRA

TCDEP4



TROPICAL STORM RAMON DISCUSSION NUMBER   1

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192017

400 AM CDT WED OCT 04 2017



THE SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE COAST OF

SOUTHERN MEXICO HAS BEEN PRODUCING PERSISTENT CONVECTION FOR ABOUT

12 HOURS.  ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE WESTERN

PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION DUE TO STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR, IT HAS

ENOUGH ORGANIZATION FOR THE SYSTEM TO BE CLASSIFY AS A TROPICAL

CYCLONE.  SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 0410 UTC REVEALED A SMALL AREA

OF 35-40 KT WINDS TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER, SO ADVISORIES ARE

BEING INITIATED ON A 40-KT TROPICAL STORM, THE SEVENTEENTH TROPICAL

STORM OF THE 2017 EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON.  STRONG

EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER RAMON DURING THE NEXT

DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WHICH IS LIKELY TO PREVENT STRENGTHENING

OF THE SMALL TROPICAL STORM.  THE ECMWF AND GFS WEAKEN THE CYCLONE

OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO, ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS SHOW SOME INTERACTION

WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE FARTHER WEST IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE NHC

FORECAST IS OF LOW CONFIDENCE AND CALLS FOR NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH

THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS FOR RAMON

TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE COAST OF MEXICO AND DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT

2-3 DAYS.



RAMON IS MOVING WESTWARD OR 270/8 KT TO THE SOUTH OF A DEEP LAYER

RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO

BUILD WESTWARD OVER NORTHERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WHICH

SHOULD CAUSE RAMON TO MOVE WESTWARD AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD

SPEED.  LATER IN THE PERIOD, RAMON IS FORECAST TO REACH THE WESTERN

PORTION OF THE RIDGE AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD.  ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE