WTXS31 PGTW 012100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 011800Z --- NEAR 10.9S 110.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 10.9S 110.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 11.5S 111.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 12.4S 111.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 13.7S 111.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 15.8S 110.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 19.1S 111.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 20.6S 112.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 21.0S 114.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 012100Z POSITION NEAR 11.1S 110.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 711 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS INCREASING DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF A 011410Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING A WEAK LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTION MOSTLY ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (50 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM KNES AS WELL AS AN AUTOMATED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) ESTIMATE OF T3.3 (51 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM LIES IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 28-29 DEG CELSIUS. TC 01S HAS SLOWED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AS IT SLOWLY BEGINS TO TURN MORE SOUTHEASTWARD. TC DAHLIA WILL SLOWLY TURN TO A SOUTH, THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK BY TAU 24 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA. BY TAU 72, THE STEERING RIDGE REORIENTS TO A MORE EAST- WEST AXIS, ALLOWING TC 01S TO SHIFT TO AN EASTWARD TRACK TOWARDS THE WESTERN AUSTRALIA COAST. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH LOW VWS, HIGH SSTS AND GOOD OUTFLOW, SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS AROUND TAU 36. AFTER ABOUT TAU 60, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TRACKING OVER COOLER WATERS (LESS THAN 26 DEG CELSIUS), AND BEGIN TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO THE LOSS OF ENERGY SOURCE. TC 01S IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT, THOUGH WITH A BIFURCATION IN THE MODELS AFTER TAU 72 WITH ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE TAKING THE SYSTEM WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS OPEN WATERS, WHILE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN TURN THE SYSTEM DUE NORTH. THE REMAINDER OF THE MODEL DATA LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE JTWC TRACK LIES NEAR THE CONSENSUS AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS. DUE TO THE INCREASING SPREAD AND DEVELOPING BIFURCATION OF THE MODEL TRACKERS THERE IS OVERALL HIGH, BUT DECREASING, CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z, 020900Z, 021500Z AND 022100Z.//