WTXS31 PGTW 030300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 013 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTH IO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 030000Z --- NEAR 12.5S 112.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S 112.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 14.5S 112.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 16.4S 111.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 18.0S 111.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 19.3S 111.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 030300Z POSITION NEAR 13.0S 112.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 588 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MUTLI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH LIMITED FLARING CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE FULLY EXPOSED LLCC EVIDENT IN THE MULTI-SPECTRAL LOOP AND IS SUPPORTED BY A 022216Z 91GHZ SSMIS IMAGE. THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS LIMITED POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION PRESENT TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS HEDGED ON THE UPPER END OF MUTLI-AGNECY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T1.5 TO T2.5 (25-35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND APRF RESPECTIVELY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (15- 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS TRACKING THROUGH AN AREA OF WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC 01S HAS POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS CURRENTLY BEING ENHANCED BY THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY JET. TC DAHLIA IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AUSTRALIAN CONTINENT. THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES UNFAVORABLE WITH COOLER SSTS, UNFAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING TROUGH, AND AN EXTENSIVE DRY AIR MASS WILL FULLY DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM OVER WATER BY TAU 48. ALSO AFTER TAU 36, THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE RETROGRADES TO THE NORTH AND CAUSING TC 01S TO ROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE AND TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK DIRECTION THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, THE WEAKENING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM CAUSES THE MODEL GUIDANCE TO SPREAD. DESPITE THE SPREAD AFTER TAU 36 THERE IS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z, AND 040300Z.//