WTXS31 PGTW 301500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 301200Z --- NEAR 9.3S 107.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 9.3S 107.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 10.3S 109.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 11.5S 109.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 12.8S 109.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 14.3S 109.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 17.6S 109.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 20.9S 110.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 23.8S 113.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 301500Z POSITION NEAR 9.6S 108.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (DAHLIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 865 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING, HOWEVER, A 301132Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE INDICATES THE WELL-DEFINED CENTER IS DISPLACED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO MODERATE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. TC 01S IS FORECAST TO TURN SHARPLY SOUTHWARD AFTER TAU 12 AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 55 KNOTS BY TAU 24 BUT OVERALL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE LIMITING INTENSIFICATION. AFTER TAU 72, TC 01S WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD OVER COOLER SST AND ENCOUNTER INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES OVER NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA, WHICH WILL SERVE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AND LEAD TO EVENTUAL DISSIPATION AS TC DAHLIA APPROACHES THE LEARMONTH AREA. DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z, 010300Z, 010900Z AND 011500Z.//