WTIO31 PGTW 090300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTH IO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 090000Z --- NEAR 19.3N 86.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.3N 86.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 20.8N 87.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 22.3N 88.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 090300Z POSITION NEAR 19.7N 87.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION WHICH IS BEING SHEARED TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH TC 04B. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON A 081514Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING AN AREA OF 40 KNOT WINDS IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF TC 04B. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES (20 TO 25 KNOTS). POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS MODERATE AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS POOR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE UNFAVORABLE (25 TO 26 DEGREES CELSIUS). TC 04B IS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST. THE STR WILL STEER TC 04B NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. AS A RESULT OF UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TC 04B WILL WEAKEN IN INTENSITY TO 35 KNOTS BY TAU 12 BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER LAND BY TAU 24. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT RESULTING IN HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z.//