WTXS31 PGTW 040300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 040000Z --- NEAR 17.3S 52.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S 52.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 17.7S 51.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 18.2S 50.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 18.6S 49.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 19.5S 49.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 22.1S 49.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 24.3S 48.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 26.2S 47.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 032100Z POSITION NEAR 16.8S 53.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 249 NM NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 032309Z 37GHZ SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING DEEP CONVECTION PREDOMINANTLY IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLES, WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS HEDGED ON THE UPPER END OF MUTLI- AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5 TO T3.0 (35-45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES RESPECTIVELY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS STRONG EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 03S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD MADAGASCAR THROUGH TAU 36 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 36, AS THE STR MOVES EASTWARD THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, TAKING IT DOWN THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR. TC 03S IS FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS BY TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, CONTINUED LAND INTERACTION WITH THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM WILL PREVENT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN AROUND 65 KNOT INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 96. AFTER TAU 96, DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN AN EXPANSIVE TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WIND FIELD AS IT TRANSITIONS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24 THE MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO SPREAD SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE PRINCIPLE OUTLIERS BEING HWRF TRACKING OVER MADAGASCAR, AND NAVGEM, WITH A SOLUTION HAS THE SYSTEM REMAINING WELL OFF SHORE. DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z, 041500Z, 042100Z AND 050300Z.//