WTXS31 PGTW 052100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 013 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 051800Z --- NEAR 18.6S 49.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.6S 49.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 19.7S 48.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 20.9S 48.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 22.5S 48.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 23.8S 48.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 275 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 25.4S 47.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 26.6S 47.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 245 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 28.2S 47.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 285 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 235 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 052100Z POSITION NEAR 18.9S 48.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 374 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 374 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED DUE TO LAND INTERACTION, THOUGH A CORE OF DEEP CONVECTION IS PERSISTING OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION DUE TO THE LOSS OF THE EYE FEATURE, AND IS BASED ON ANALYSIS OF AVAILABLE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MULTI-AGENCY FIX POSITIONS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS WHICH, DUE TO THE LOSS OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OVER LAND, IS BASED PRIMARILY UPON THE OVERALL APPEARANCE OF THE SYSTEM, AND THE KNAFF-ZEHR WIND-PRESSURE RELATIONSHIP BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATION DATA IN THE REGION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A STRONG POINT SOURCE OVER THE SYSTEM SUPPORTING ROBUST EQUATORWARD AND MODERATE EASTWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. TC 03S IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP, NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST. TC 03S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST OF MADAGASCAR THROUGH TAU 48 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR AND REEMERGE OVER OPEN WATER AROUND TAU 24. BY TAU 72 THE SOUTHERN LOCUS OF THE STR STRENGTHENS AND EXTENDS WESTWARD, PUSHING TC 03S TOWARD A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. BEYOND TAU 96, AN APPROACHING DEEP MID- LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO PUSH TC AVA TO A SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK. AS TC 03S TRACKS OVER THE COAST OF MADAGASCAR, LAND INTERACTION WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO 45 KNOTS BEFORE REEMERGENCE OVER WATER. ONCE BACK OVER WATER, THE SYSTEM WILL RE-INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS OVER WARM WATERS AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE. BEYOND TAU 72 TC 03S WILL ENTER A REGION OF COOLER WATERS AND WHILE THE APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL ENHANCE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, THIS WILL BE OFFSET BY INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), LEADING TO A RAPID WEAKENING PHASE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 WITH ECMWF KEEPING THE SYSTEM OVER LAND THROUGH TAU 120, WHILE JGSM IS THE EASTERNMOST OUTLIER. BEYOND TAU 48, THE MODELS ARE SPLIT IN A BIFURCATION SCENARIO. ECMWF, NAVGEM AND HWRF INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL NOT BE PULLED POLEWARD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH LEADING TO A WESTWARD TRACK OVER SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR. THE AVNO, EGRR, AND COAMPS MODELS INDICATE A TRACK SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THE JTWC TRACK LIES ALONG THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 72 AND THEREAFTER IS SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER AND TO THE WEST OF THE CONSENSUS TRACK. DUE TO THE LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z AND 062100Z.//