WTXS31 PGTW 070300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 018 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 070000Z --- NEAR 22.4S 48.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.4S 48.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 23.4S 48.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 24.6S 48.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 25.8S 48.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 26.7S 48.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 28.6S 49.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 28.5S 52.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 070300Z POSITION NEAR 22.7S 48.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 396 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC AVA IS NOW STRADDLING THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING DISPLACED OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. A 070003Z NOAA-19 89GHZ IMAGE INDICATES SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), CONSEQUENTLY, TC 03S IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY RE-INTENSIFY AFTER TAU 12 AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD OVER WATER. TC 03S WILL TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THROUGH TAU 48. PROXIMITY TO MADAGASCAR SHOULD SLOW DEVELOPMENT, HOWEVER, TC 03S SHOULD INTENSIFY GRADUALLY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS BY TAU 36. AFTER TAU 48, TC 03S WILL TURN SHARPLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD AS IT STEERS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP MIDLATITUDE MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT TRACKS OVER COOLER SST AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VWS AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT. TC 03S WILL LIKELY SLOW AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 96 AS LOW-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM EFFECTIVELY BLOCKING FURTHER POLEWARD MOVEMENT. DUE TO THE RAPIDLY EVOLVING SYNOPTIC PATTERN, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT AFTER TAU 72 WITH A VERY LARGE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS, THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z, 071500Z, 072100Z AND 080300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//