WTXS31 PGTW 072100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 021 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 071800Z --- NEAR 24.0S 49.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 24.0S 49.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 25.3S 48.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 26.7S 48.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 28.2S 48.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 29.9S 50.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 33.6S 55.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 072100Z POSITION NEAR 24.3S 49.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 398 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 071859Z AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE INDICATE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED CENTER. A 071859Z ASCAT BULLS-EYE IMAGE SHOWS A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 35 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND 35 TO 40 KNOT WINDS DISPLACED OVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS, HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 1.0 (25 KNOTS), BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA AND CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. TC 03S WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THROUGH TAU 36. PROXIMITY TO MADAGASCAR SHOULD SLOW DEVELOPMENT, HOWEVER, TC 03S SHOULD INTENSIFY GRADUALLY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS BY TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, TC 03S WILL TURN SHARPLY SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT STEERS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP MIDLATITUDE MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT TRACKS OVER COOLER SST AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VWS. HOWEVER, TC 03S IS NOW FORECAST TO UNDERGO EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z, 080900Z, 081500Z AND 082100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//