WTXS32 PGTW 070300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 005 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 070000Z --- NEAR 13.5S 87.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S 87.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 14.6S 84.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 16.4S 81.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 18.6S 78.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 19 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 21.2S 75.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 23 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 28.8S 70.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 24 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 37.6S 74.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 070300Z POSITION NEAR 13.8S 86.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (IRVING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 954 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A WEAK, DEVELOPING EYE. A 070021Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. ADDITIONALLY, THE 37GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGE SHOWS A CYAN RING, WHICH TYPICALLY SIGNALS AN IMMINENT RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 FROM PGTW AND FMEE. TC 04S IS TRACKING WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48. TC 04S SHOULD INTENSIFY RAPIDLY UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TO A PEAK OF 90 KNOTS BY TAU 36. AFTER TAU 48, TC 04S WILL RE-CURVE AND ACCELERATE AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES, BEGINNING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 72. TC IRVING IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96 AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 96, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z, 071500Z, 072100Z AND 080300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX- HOURLY UPDATES.//