WTXS32 PGTW 072100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 008 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 071800Z --- NEAR 15.8S 83.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 83.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 17.4S 80.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 19.4S 77.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 21.6S 74.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 19 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 24.2S 71.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 21 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 32.1S 68.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 33 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 43.7S 76.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 245 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 072100Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 82.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (IRVING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 808 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 04S HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED 45 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS (INCREASING INTENSITY FROM 45 KNOTS TO 90 KNOTS). ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH EYEWALL CONVECTION SURROUNDING AN 11NM EYE. A 071624Z METOP-A 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A SLIGHT BREAK IN THE EYEWALL OVER THE NORTH QUADRANT WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0 FROM PGTW AND KNES. TC 04S IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48. TC 04S SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 12 DUE TO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TO A PEAK OF 95 KNOTS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO PEAK AT A SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER INTENSITY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER TAU 48, TC 04S WILL RE-CURVE AND ACCELERATE AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES, BEGINNING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 72. TC IRVING IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96 AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 96, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z, 080900Z, 081500Z AND 082100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//