WTXS32 PGTW 090900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 014 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 090600Z --- NEAR 21.5S 74.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 16 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.5S 74.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 24.1S 71.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 20 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 27.7S 69.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 24 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 32.5S 69.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 39 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 39.3S 74.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 285 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 360 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 090900Z POSITION NEAR 22.2S 73.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 870 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH DETERIORATING BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION WHICH IS BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE FIXES AND A LOW REFLECTIVITY FEATURE OBSERVED IN AN 090409Z 89GHZ AMSU IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 75 KNOTS WHICH IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.0 TO T4.5 (65 TO 77 KNOTS) AND A 090230Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 72 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED TO THE EAST WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CREATING SOME CONVERGENCE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST FEEDING INTO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC 04S IS TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF A DEEP- LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE WILL KEEP TS 04S ON ITS CURRENT TRACK AND SHORTLY AFTER TAU 24 SHIFT TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS. SSTS IN THE REGION ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 26 CELSIUS AND WILL CONTINUE TO DECLINE AS TC 04S TRACKS POLEWARD. THE COOLER WATERS COMBINED WITH INCREASING WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 36 ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND BEGIN INTERACTING WITH TC 04S BRINGING INCREASED WIND SHEAR AND TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. TC 04S WILL ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND RAPIDLY TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM BY TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z, 100300Z AND 100900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//