WTXS33 PGTW 092100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNING NR 001// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNING NR 001 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 091800Z --- NEAR 17.6S 123.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 123.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 18.0S 122.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 18.9S 121.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 20.3S 121.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 15 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 23.1S 119.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 27.9S 117.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 092100Z POSITION NEAR 17.7S 123.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 65 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER HAS ASSESSED THAT DESPITE TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05S BEING LOCATED OVER LAND, INTENSIFICATION TO BASIN WARNING CRITERIA (35 KNOTS) WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT TWELVE HOURS ONCE THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER WATER. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. A 091809Z 85GHZ SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE CONFIRMS THE THE DEEP CONVECTION IS PREDOMINANTLY IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND ALSO SHOWS WEAK FORMATIVE BANDING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON CYCLONIC TURNING EVIDENT IN THE ANIMATED IR LOOP AND BROAD TURNING EVIDENT IN THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY (ABOM) ANIMATED RADAR LOOP. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS VERY BROAD AND POORLY DEFINED AT THIS TIME. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM NEAR THE AREA OF THE STORM WHICH ARE FROM 18 TO 22 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS) AND ONCE IT TRACKS OVER WATER, WILL BE IN AN AREA OF VERY WARM (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT TWELVE HOURS, EXITING OVER WATER PRIOR TO TAU 12. ONCE OVER WATER THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY INTENSIFY. THE TRACK DIRECTION IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BETWEEN AFTER TAU 12 AND TRACK BACK OVER LAND SOUTH OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA AROUND TAU 24. ONCE OVER LAND, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN A VERY GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND, ENABLED BY A HIGH MOISTURE CONTINENTAL ENVIRONMENT, EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT HOWEVER, THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION LENDS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z, 100900Z, 101500Z AND 102100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. //