WTXS33 PGTW 100300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNING NR 002 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 100000Z --- NEAR 17.0S 123.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 123.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 16.9S 122.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 17.8S 121.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 19.3S 121.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 20.8S 120.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 25.4S 118.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 100300Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 122.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 75 NM NORTHEAST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER HAS ASSESSED THAT DESPITE TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05S BEING LOCATED OVER LAND, INTENSIFICATION TO BASIN WARNING CRITERIA (35 KNOTS) WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT TWELVE HOURS ONCE THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER WATER THEREFORE JUSTIFYING THE ISSUE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED, BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION PREDOMINANTLY IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. A 092255Z 89GHZ AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE CONFIRMS DEEP CONVECTION NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC AND ALSO SHOWS WEAK BANDING LOCATED IN THE NORTHERN SEMI- CIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL AND THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY ANIMATED RADAR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM SHOWING 25 TO 27 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS) AND ONCE IT TRACKS OVER THE INDIAN OCEAN WEST OF AUSTRALIA, IT WILL BE IN AN AREA OF VERY WARM (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TD 05S IS FORECAST TO TRACK TO THE WEST OVER THE NEXT TWELVE HOURS, EXITING OVER WATER AROUND TAU 6. ONCE OVER WATER THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY INTENSIFY. THE TRACK DIRECTION IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER TAU 12 AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENT OF AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER EASTERN AUSTRALIA. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL SOUTH OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA AROUND TAU 36. ONCE OVER LAND, THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN, MAINTAINING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 60 DUE TO HIGH MOISTURE ALONG THE OVERLAND TRACK. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVERLAND BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, VARYING ON THE SPEED OF THE TURN MEANING THAT SOME MODELS HAVE THE SYSTEM TRACKING ENTIRELY OVERLAND WHILE OTHERS TRACK FARTHER WEST OVER WATER. DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND THE VARIATIONS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z, 101500Z, 102100Z AND 110300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THAT SYSTEM. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//