WTXS33 PGTW 101500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNING NR 004 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 101200Z --- NEAR 16.1S 122.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 122.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 16.6S 121.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 17.5S 121.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 18.7S 121.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 20.1S 120.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 24.3S 117.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 28.6S 116.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 101500Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 122.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 109 NM NORTH OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM JUST OFFSHORE CAPE LEVEQUE, AUSTRALIA SHOWING LITTLE MOVEMENT OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION WHICH IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING LIGHT RAIN WITH INCREASING INTENSITY AND THE GENERAL ROTATION OF THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON BOTH PGTW AND APRF DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS) AND THE HIGHEST REPORTED WIND OBSERVATION IN THE REGION FROM ADELE ISLAND REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 29 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS VERY LOW WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. SSTS IN THE AREA ARE IN EXCESS OF 30 CELSIUS AND VERY CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION. TC 05S HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS UNDER A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH ONE MID TO LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST AND ANOTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE NORTHWESTERN RIDGE IS FORECAST TO RETREAT TO THE WEST IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE ANCHORED OVER AUSTRALIA SHIFTING TC 05S TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS TC 05S WILL REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE OVER THE WARM OPEN WATER AND WITH FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY TO 55 KNOTS. NEAR TAU 48 TC 05S WILL MAKE LANDFALL EAST OF PORT HEADLAND AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. LAND INTERACTION AS TC 05S TRACKS OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM FULLY DISSIPATING BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SUPPORT FOR THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY BUT DIFFERS IN THE TRACK TRAJECTORY AS A RESULT OF THE NEAR-TERM COMPETING STEERING RIDGES. OVERALL THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//