WTXS33 PGTW 102100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNING NR 005 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 101800Z --- NEAR 16.7S 122.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S 122.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 17.3S 121.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 18.4S 121.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 19.7S 120.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 21.4S 119.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 25.6S 117.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 29.9S 115.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 102100Z POSITION NEAR 16.8S 122.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 72 NM NORTH OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 101923Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A DEFINED CENTER. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM BROOME AIRPORT INDICATE SLP NEAR 997MB, A 4.8MB DECREASE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, OBSERVATIONS FROM ADELE ISLAND INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS (10-MINUTE AVERAGE) OF 33 KNOTS GUSTING TO 39 KNOTS. OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) SUPPORT THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS. TC 05S IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED, NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE EAST. TC 05S WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD AND IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD AND WEAKEN STEADILY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 05S IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 36 DUE TO DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW, VERY FAVORABLE SST (30-31C), AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. INTERACTION WITH THE FLAT, MOIST LAND IS NOT EXPECTED TO HINDER DEVELOPMENT SIGNIFICANTLY. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A 115NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 36, THEREFORE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TRACK AND LANDFALL LOCATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z, 110900Z, 111500Z AND 112100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//