WTXS33 PGTW 110900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (JOYCE) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 110600Z --- NEAR 17.3S 121.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S 121.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 18.5S 121.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 19.7S 120.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 21.3S 119.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 23.2S 117.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 27.5S 115.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 110900Z POSITION NEAR 17.6S 121.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (JOYCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 50 NM NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM ABOM PROVIDES A GOOD DEPICTION OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER TRACKING SOUTHWARD AND LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE APPROXIMATELY 44NM NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA AND IS THE BASIS FOR THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) AND A 0145Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING 25 TO 30 KNOTS OVER OPEN WATER MATCHING WELL WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OF NEARBY ISLANDS ADELE AND ROWLEY SHOALS. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS SHOW A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW. SSTS IN THE AREA ARE EXTREMELY WARM, ABOVE 30 CELSIUS. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE CONTINENT TO THE SOUTHEAST IS CURRENTLY STEERING TC 05S ON A TRACK SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE TC 05S IS TRACKING OVER OPEN WATER ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE AND IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO 60 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 24 TC 05S WILL MAKE LANDFALL EAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA. TC 05S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD OVER LAND AND FULLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME IMPROVEMENT BUT THERE IS A DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WHEN AND WHERE TC 05S WILL MAKE LANDFALL WITH APPROXIMATELY 130NM SPREAD ALONG THE COASTLINE BETWEEN SOLUTIONS. NOTABLY ECMWF IS THE WESTERN MOST OUTLIER, JUST OUTSIDE OF THE NAVGEM AND COAMPS-TC SOLUTIONS. THE FORECAST TRACK IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, BUT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z, 112100Z, 120300Z AND 120900Z.//