WTXS33 PGTW 120300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (JOYCE) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 120000Z --- NEAR 19.5S 121.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S 121.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 20.8S 120.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 22.5S 118.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 24.6S 117.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 120300Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 120.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (JOYCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 118 NM SOUTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM BROOME DEPICTS AN ILL-DEFINED CENTER, THEREFORE THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. HOWEVER, SURFACE WINDS AT MANDORA, 15NM SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM CENTER, ARE SOUTHEASTERLY WITH GUSTS FROM 35 TO 42 KNOTS AND SLP NEAR 990MB, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL INTENSITY AND INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM APRF. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. RECENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 05S IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE AUSTRALIAN COAST, WHICH IS HINDERING SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE SOUTHWESTWARD WHILE WEAKENING GRADUALLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 05S IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z, 121500Z, 122100Z AND 130300Z.//