WTIO30 FMEE 190622 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 26/3/20172018 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BERGUITTA) 2.A POSITION 2018/01/19 AT 0600 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.2 S / 53.3 E (TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 14 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 330 SE: 870 SW: 700 NW: 410 34 KT NE: 170 SE: 480 SW: 440 NW: 130 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2018/01/19 18 UTC: 26.4 S / 51.1 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 24H: 2018/01/20 06 UTC: 29.2 S / 49.8 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 36H: 2018/01/20 18 UTC: 32.1 S / 49.5 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 48H: 2018/01/21 06 UTC: 33.2 S / 50.3 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 60H: 2018/01/21 18 UTC: 33.3 S / 52.4 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 72H: 2018/01/22 06 UTC: 33.8 S / 54.8 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK : 96H: 2018/01/23 06 UTC: 36.8 S / 56.7 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 120H: 2018/01/24 06 UTC: 37.7 S / 55.3 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=3.5- CI=3.5- DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE EMBEDDED CENTER PATTERN OF BERGUITTA HAS SLIGHTLY DETERIORATED. 0228Z 37 GHZ WINDSAT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED MAINLY WITHIN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. BERGUITTA CONTINUES TO TRACK QUICKLY SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING FLOW GENERATING BY THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. SUNDAY, BERGUITTA IS FORECASTED TO SLOW DOWN AND BEND EASTWARD AND THEN SOUTHWARD BLOCKED BY A LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TODAY, ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVOURABLE BUT THE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT BEGINS TO BECOME INSUFFICIENT. THE NORTHEASTERN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS MODERATE BUT THIS EFFECT SHOULD BE LIMITED DUE TO BERGUITTA'S MOVING TOWARD THE SAME DIRECTION. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD AHEAD AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AN EFFICIENT POLERWARD CHANNEL. SO, BERGUITTA IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON ITS INTENSITY. FROM TOMORROW, THE NORTHWESTWARD VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AHEAD THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD BECOME GRADUALLY STRONG. SO BERGUITTA SHOULD EVOLVE LIKE A POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM BUT IT SHOULD KEEP A SHALLOW WARM CORE MOVING TOWARD THE MID-LATITUDES. MAXIMUM WINDS ASSOCIATED TO THE CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION SHOULD REMAIN ABOUT 45 KT.=