WTXS31 PGTW 130300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX) WARNING NR 002 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 130000Z --- NEAR 17.3S 65.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S 65.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 17.5S 64.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 17.6S 63.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 17.5S 62.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 17.4S 62.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 17.3S 61.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 18.2S 60.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 19.5S 59.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 130300Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 65.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 501 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF DEEP AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION LOCATED AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH TC 06S. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 122226Z SSMI 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING AN IMPROVING BANDING STRUCTURE AROUND THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND DEVELOPING POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE, NEAR 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 06S WILL SLOWLY TRACK TO THE WEST WITH A WEAK STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGH TAU 36 AND INTENSIFY TO 65 KNOTS. TC 06S WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 72 WITH A CONTINUED WEAK STEERING PATTERN. A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WILL ACCELERATE AND STEER TC 06S SOUTHWESTWARD NEAR TAU 72. THE DEVELOPING DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS WILL ALLOW TC 06S TO REACH AN INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS BY TAU 96. DUE TO THE LACK OF A PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE TRACKS, ESPECIALLY AS TC 06S BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY. AFTER TAU 72 THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT TC 06S WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD BUT A LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS, THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z, 131500Z, 132100Z AND 140300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (JOYCE) WARNING (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THAT SYSTEM.//