WTXS31 PGTW 130900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX) WARNING NR 003 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 130600Z --- NEAR 17.7S 64.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S 64.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 17.8S 63.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 17.8S 63.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 17.8S 62.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 17.6S 62.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 17.8S 61.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 18.6S 60.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 20.1S 58.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 130900Z POSITION NEAR 17.7S 64.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 455 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION CENTRALLY LOCATED OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 130511Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING 35-40 KNOT WIND BARBS AND IS ON THE UPPER END OF THE PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS) AND WARM (28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC 06S HAS WELL ORGANIZED POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. TC 06S IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY TRACK TO THE WEST IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTER TAU 36 THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME QUASI STATIONARY BEFORE FINALLY ACCELERATING TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND TAU 72 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 06S WILL STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, REACHING A PEAK OF 95 KNOTS AROUND TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT IN THE TRACK DUE TO THE LACK OF A DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE. THIS IS PRODUCING A LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODELS THROUGH THE QUASI STATIONARY PERIOD. HOWEVER, IN GENERAL THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE LONG TERM. DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z, 132100Z, 140300Z AND 140900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (JOYCE) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THAT SYSTEM.//