WTXS31 PGTW 132100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 005 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 131800Z --- NEAR 18.3S 63.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S 63.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 18.3S 62.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 17.9S 62.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 17.7S 62.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 17.4S 61.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 17.9S 59.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 19.5S 57.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 21.4S 55.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 235 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 132100Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 63.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 373 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN OVERALL DECREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS BUT IS SHOWING SIGNS OF INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE DUE TO THE APPROACH OF CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM, WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE DEEPEST ACTIVITY BEING CONFINED TO NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 131740Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH A WELL DEFINED LLCC AND DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC FROM THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANTS OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM KNES. A 131658Z ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER BULLSEYE PASS INDICATED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 35-40 KNOTS, MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN SEMI- CIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 06S LIES IN AN AREA FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND WARM (28 CELSIUS) SSTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS WELL ORGANIZED POINT SOURCE JUST TO ITS NORTH, PROVIDING ROBUST POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. TC 06S IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY TRACK TO THE WEST THROUGH TAU 12, THEN MEANDER SLOWLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH TAU 48 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) DEVELOPING NEAR SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR AND GENERALLY TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) LYING ALONG ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES SOUTH. AFTER TAU 48 AS THE STR EXTENDS TOWARDS THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES REORIENTED TO A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTATION, TC 06S WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AND ACCELERATE. TC 06S WILL STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, REACHING A PEAK OF 90 KNOTS AROUND TAU 72 BEFORE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING SSTS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT IN THE TRACK THROUGH TAU 48 DUE TO THE OVERALL WEAK STEERING PATTERN. AFTER TAU 48, MOST OF THE MODELS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT, WITH DIFFERENCES IN FORWARD SPEED BEING THE MAJOR DISAGREEMENT. WHILE ALL MODELS INDICATE A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IN THE EARLY TAU'S, THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE MODEL TRACKERS BEYOND TAU 48, WITH THE EUROPEAN MODELS AND ENSEMBLES TAKING THE SYSTEM MUCH FURTHER NORTH AND WEST, WHILE THE COAMPS-TC SHOWS NO NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT, AND CONTINUES THE SYSTEM DIRECTLY SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE JTWC TRACK LIES ON THE NORTH EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE MULTI- MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS HEDGED TOWARDS THE EUROPEAN SOLUTIONS. WITH THE HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY PRESENT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//