WTXS31 PGTW 140300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 006 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 140000Z --- NEAR 18.2S 63.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 63.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 18.1S 62.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 17.8S 62.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 17.6S 62.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 17.4S 61.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 18.1S 60.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 19.8S 57.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 22.0S 55.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 235 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 140300Z POSITION NEAR 18.2S 63.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 364 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS IMPROVED STRUCTURALLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, WITH DEEPENING CORE CONVECTION CENTERED AROUND THE ASSESSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 132349Z SSMIS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH A WELL DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE AND DEEP CONVECTION NEARLY ENCIRCLING THE LLCC. THE SAME EYE FEATURE IS ALSO EVIDENT IN LOWER FREQUENCY MICROWAVE DATA (37 GHZ) BUT IS NOT AS CLEAR AND OFFSET SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST, INDICATING THAT THE SYSTEM HAS YET TO CONSOLIDATE VERTICALLY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM KNES AS WELL AS AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) ESTIMATE OF 49 KNOTS AND SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 53 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 06S REMAINS IN AN AREA FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND WARM (28 CELSIUS) SSTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN UPPER LEVEL POINT SOURCE JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, PROVIDING OVERALL WEAK BUT WELL ORGANIZED OUTFLOW, THE WEAK NATURE OF WHICH IS THE ONLY HINDRANCE KEEPING TC 06S ON ITS SLOW INTENSIFICATION TREND. TC 06S HAS SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS UNDER WEAK STEERING FLOW. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY TRACK WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH TAU 24, THEN INCREASE SPEED SLIGHTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG STR WHICH DEVELOPS SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR. AFTER TAU 48 THE STR MOVES TO THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST OF TC 06S, LEADING THE SYSTEM TO TRANSITION TO A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 06S IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION BETWEEN TAUS 48 AND 72 AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAP INTO A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, REACHING A PEAK OF 90 KNOTS AROUND TAU 72 BEFORE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING SSTS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE TRACK THROUGH TAU 48 WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE SPEED AND TIMING OF THE TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST. BEYOND TAU 48 HOWEVER, THE MODELS HAVE SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY BOTH IN THE ACROSS AND ALONG-TRACK DIMENSIONS, WITH A SPREAD OF 410 NM BETWEEN THE TAU 120 OUTLIERS. DISCOUNTING THE OUTLIERS, THE MAJORITY OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INDICATES A PATH THAT BRACKETS MAURITIUS. THE JTWC TRACK LIES ON THE NORTH EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. WITH THE HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY PRESENT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//