WTXS31 PGTW 140900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 007 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 140600Z --- NEAR 18.1S 63.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S 63.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 17.9S 62.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 17.7S 62.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 17.6S 62.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 17.7S 61.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 18.6S 59.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 295 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 255 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 20.5S 56.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 23.0S 53.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 140900Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 62.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS TWO POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER AND OCCLUDING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 140449Z 89GHZ METOP-A AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND A FORMATIVE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES AND IS SUPPORTED BY A RECENT SATCON ESTIMATE OF 52 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND WARM (28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A POINT SOURCE LOCATED OVER THE SYSTEM AND TC 06S CURRENTLY HAS WELL ORGANIZED ALBEIT WEAK POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. THE WEAK NATURE OF THE OUTFLOW CHANNELS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO THE SYSTEMS SLOW INTENSIFICATION TREND DESPITE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. TC 06S CONTINUES TO TRACK SLOWLY DUE TO THE LACK OF A DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED THE SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR CAUSES THE SYSTEM TO ACCELERATE TO THE WEST. AS THE STR TRACKS TO THE EAST THE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT TRACK DIRECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST AND ACCELERATE AND STEADILY ACCELERATE. TC 06S IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 72 DUE TO FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AND THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL TAPPING INTO MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK OF 90 KNOTS AROUND TAU 72 BEFORE IT BEGINS A WEAKENING TREND AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE TRACK THROUGH TAU 36 WITH SOME VARIATION IN THE SPEED AND TIMING OF THE TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST. AFTER TAU 36, THE MODELS SPREAD SIGNIFICANTLY IN BOTH SPEED AND DIRECTION LENDING TO A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTIES IN THE LATER TAUS. THE JTWC TRACK IS PLACED TO THE NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. DUE TO THE HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z, 142100Z, 150300Z AND 150900Z.//