WTXS31 PGTW 141500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 008 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 141200Z --- NEAR 18.1S 62.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 01 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S 62.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 17.9S 62.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 17.8S 62.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 17.8S 61.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 18.0S 60.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 19.3S 58.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 255 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 21.5S 55.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 24.2S 53.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 295 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 141500Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 62.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 339 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A SMALL AREA OF CENTRALLY LOCATED CONVECTION THAT IS OCCLUDING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN QUASI STATIONARY FOR THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MULTI-SPECTRAL ANIMATED LOOP AND A 141043Z 37GHZ SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED PREDOMINANTLY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH BANDING WRAPPING IN FROM THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES AND IS SUPPORTED BY A RECENT SATCON ESTIMATE OF 55 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT TC 06S IS IN AN AREA FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND WARM (28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS WITH THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL TAPPING INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. TC 06S HAS BEEN QUASI STATIONARY DUE TO A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTER TAU 36, A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THAT IS BUILDING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR TAKES OVER AS THE DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE. AS THE STR TRANSITS TO THE EAST, THE SYSTEM WILL ROUND THE NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THE STR AND BEGIN TO ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC 06S IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 72, PEAKING AT 95 KNOTS, UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND WITH THE HELP OF THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL BEING ENHANCED BY THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM BEGINS A WEAKENING TREND AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECREASE. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE TRACK THROUGH TAU 24. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER TAU 24 AS THE SOLUTIONS VARY ON THE SPEED AND TIMING OF THE TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST. AFTER TAU 36, THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST HOWEVER, THE INITIAL DIFFERENCES IN THE TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST LEAD TO LARGE VARIATIONS IN BOTH ALONG TRACK AND CROSS TRACK DIMENSIONS. THE JTWC TRACK IS PLACED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CONSENSUS. DUE TO THE HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN JTWC FORECAST TRACK MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z, 150300Z, 150900Z AND 151500Z.//