WTXS31 PGTW 150300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 150000Z --- NEAR 17.8S 63.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 63.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 17.8S 62.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 17.7S 61.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 17.9S 61.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 18.3S 60.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 20.1S 57.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 22.6S 54.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 26.7S 51.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 150300Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 63.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 362 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED NORTH- NORTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS INCREASINGLY WELL ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION, WITH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE OBSCURING A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT BEST TRACK INDICATES THE LLCC IS DRIFTING SLIGHTLY NORTHEASTWARD, POSSIBLY INDICATIVE OF A LOOPING MOTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A TIGHT HOOK FEATURE OBSERVED IN THE 142336Z SSMIS 91GHZ PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS RAISED TO 65 KNOTS BASED ON A RANGE OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM T3.5 TO T4.5 (55 TO 77 KNOTS), WITH A MULTI-PLATFORM SATELLITE WIND ANALYSIS ESTIMATE OF 71 KNOTS. SEVERAL FRAMES OF EIR JUST AFTER SYNOPTIC TIME SUGGEST AN EYE IS TRYING TO FORM, WHICH WOULD BE IN LINE WITH THE HIGHER END OF THE INTENSITY RANGE. DVORAK VALUES MAY BE UNDER ESTIMATED DUE TO THE COMPACT CONVECTIVE CORE, WHICH CAN BE OBSERVED IN THE AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS IMAGE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT TC 06S REMAINS IN AN AREA FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, NEARLY UNDERNEATH THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS), WARM (28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND ROBUST UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. MOTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY SLOW, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LOOPING OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS DUE TO THE COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCES OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH, AND ANOTHER STR BUILDING OVER EASTERN MADAGASCAR. BEYOND TAU 36, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTHWEST AS A WEAKNESS BEGINS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE TWO SUB-TROPICAL RIDGES. AT THE SAME TIME, A STR TO THE EAST WILL BUILD AND BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM. THE QUASI-STATIONARY (QS) MOTION AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PROVIDE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. THE INTENSITY TREND HAS BEEN MOVED FORWARD IN TIME AND REVISED TO A PEAK OF 100 KNOTS, GIVEN THE RECENT DATA SUGGESTING RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) MAY BE OCCURRING. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE, WITH THE HWRF MODEL AT THE HIGH END DEVELOPING BERGUITTA INTO A VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS PLACED ABOVE THE CONSENSUS REFLECTING THE HWRF. BEYOND TAU 72, A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECREASE. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO TRACK DIRECTION, PARTICULARLY AFTER THE QS PHASE, HOWEVER TRACK SPEEDS VARY WIDELY. THE MOGREPS ENSEMBLE REMAINS A NOTABLE OUTLIER, WITH THE SPREAD OF ALL MEMBERS REMAINING EAST OF MAURITIUS. THE JTWC TRACK IS PLACED VERY CLOSE TO THE PRIOR FORECAST. DUE TO THE HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT TERM MOTION AND MODEL TRACK SPEEDS, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z, 151500Z, 152100Z AND 160300Z.//