WTXS31 PGTW 150900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 150600Z --- NEAR 17.8S 63.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 01 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 63.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 17.8S 62.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 17.9S 61.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 18.2S 60.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 18.7S 59.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 20.8S 56.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 23.8S 53.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 27.9S 51.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 150900Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 63.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 362 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS INCREASINGLY WELL ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION, WITH A 10 NM WIDE EYE FEATURE DEVELOPING OVER THE NEARLY STATIONARY LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE VISIBLE IN MULTI-SPECTRAL IMAGERY. A TIGHT HOOK FEATURE OBSERVED IN THE 150525Z 89 GHZ METOP-B AMSU SSMIS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 75 KNOTS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.5 TO T5.0 (77 TO 90 KNOTS), FROM PGTW AND KNES RESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A MULTI-PLATFORM SATELLITE WIND ANALYSIS ESTIMATE OF 75 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT TC 06S REMAINS IN AN AREA FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND WARM (28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THEY SYSTEM HAS GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW WITH THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL TAPPING INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. TC 06S IS FORECAST TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS DUE TO WEAK AND COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCES OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH, AND ANOTHER STR BUILDING OVER EASTERN MADAGASCAR. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO A WEAKNESS BEGINS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE TWO SUB-TROPICAL RIDGES. AROUND TAU 48, THE STR LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST BEGINS TO BUILD AND TAKES OVER AS THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. THE QUASI-STATIONARY (QS) MOTION AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 36 AND THE SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY REACH A PEAK OF 105 KNOTS AROUND TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS VWS INCREASES AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECREASE. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER A PERIOD OF QUASI STATIONARY MOTION. DUE TO VARIATIONS IN THE TIME AND SHARPNESS OF THE TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST THERE IS A FAIRLY LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODEL FORECAST TRACK. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE MULTI- MODEL CONSENSUS. DUE TO THE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE GUIDANCE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z, 152100Z, 160300Z AND 160900Z.//