WTXS31 PGTW 151500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 151200Z --- NEAR 18.0S 63.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 63.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 18.2S 62.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 18.5S 61.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 19.0S 60.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 235 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 19.7S 59.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 285 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 22.0S 55.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 25.1S 52.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 29.3S 50.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 151500Z POSITION NEAR 18.1S 62.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 347 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTI- SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A 10 NM WIDE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE VISIBLE IN MULTI-SPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 151210 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH A CLEARLY DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE. THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION ENCIRCLING THE EYE FEATURE WITH FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING IN FROM THE WESTERN SEMI- CIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 90 KNOTS BASED ON MULTI- AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.0 TO T5.5 (90 TO 102 KNOTS), FROM PGTW AND KNES RESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A MULTI-PLATFORM SATELLITE WIND ANALYSIS ESTIMATE OF 88 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS IS IN AN AREA WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS) AND WARM (28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THEY SYSTEM HAS GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL THAT IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. TC 06S HAS BEEN QUASI STATIONARY FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS NOR FORECAST TO TRACK TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH, AND ANOTHER STR BUILDING OVER EASTERN MADAGASCAR. AS THE STR TO THE SOUTH BUILDS, IT WILL ALSO TRANSIT TO THE WEST AND TAKE OVER AS THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE CAUSING TC 06S TO TRACK MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER TAU 36. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT HAS ALLOWED THE SYSTEM TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE PERSISTENT FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 36, EVENTUALLY REACHING A PEAK OF 110 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS VWS INCREASES AND THE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO AN AREA OF COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM HAS WILL TRACK TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST INITIALLY AND THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. DUE TO THE STRONG AGREEMENT OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI- MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z, 160300Z, 160900Z AND 161500Z.//