WTXS31 PGTW 152100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 013// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 013 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 151800Z --- NEAR 18.1S 62.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S 62.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 18.3S 61.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 18.6S 60.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 19.1S 59.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 20.1S 58.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 22.5S 54.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 26.1S 52.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 31.2S 51.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 152100Z POSITION NEAR 18.1S 62.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 324 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED 17 NM WIDE EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR EYE FIXES. A 151755Z AMSU 89 GHZ PASS ALSO SUPPORTS THE POSITION WITH A PARTIAL MICROWAVE EYE AND A COMPACT CONVECTIVE CORE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 100 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS) FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES, AND SUPPORTED BY A MULTI- PLATFORM WIND ANALYSIS ESTIMATE OF 100 KNOTS. BERGUITTA REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT NEARLY UNDERNEATH A POINT SOURCE, WITH THE LATEST SHIPS ANALYSIS INDICATING LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND 28 DEGREE CELSIUS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW THAT OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST, PARTICULARLY IN THE POLEWARD CHANNEL. SOME SLIGHT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE AS TC 09S TRACKS OVER A TONGUE OF HIGHER SSTS, HOWEVER, SHIPS INDICATES VWS WILL BEGIN TO LIMIT THE INTENSIFICATION BY TAU 24. ADDITIONALLY, THE HWRF MODEL HAS FINALLY LEVELED OFF. GIVEN OTHERWISE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, BERGUITTA SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN A NEAR STEADY INTENSITY AROUND 100 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS, AFTER WHICH ADDITIONAL VWS AND DECLINING OCEANIC SUPPORT WILL LEAD TO WEAKENING. THE LATEST BEST TRACK INDICATES TC 06S HAS BEGUN A SLIGHTLY MORE PRONOUNCED FORWARD MOTION, HOWEVER, COMPETING STEERING MECHANISMS ARE STILL IN PLACE. AS A RESULT, TRACK SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN SLOW FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BETWEEN TAU 24 TO 36, A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE STEERING RIDGES IS EXPECTED TO FORM, ALLOWING A TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AND AN ACCELERATION OF FOREWARD MOTION. SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF BERGUITTA IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN AFTER TAU 36, FURTHER ENHANCING THE SOUTHWESTERLY MOTION UNTIL TC 09S TURNS SOUTHWARD AND BEGINS TO ROUND THE RIDGE NEAR TAU 96. EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY TAU 96 AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER SUB-26 DEGREE CELSIUS WATERS, AND SHOULD BE COMPLETE BY TAU 120. AVAILABLE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THE LOW SPREAD AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND PRIOR FORECAST WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z AND 162100Z.//