WTXS31 PGTW 160300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 014// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 014 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 160000Z --- NEAR 18.2S 61.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 61.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 18.6S 60.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 19.1S 59.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 19.9S 58.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 21.0S 57.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 23.7S 53.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 27.2S 51.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 32.0S 51.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 160300Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 61.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A COMPACT EYE THAT HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY RAGGED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR EYE FIXES, AND SUPPORTED BY A 152323Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE EYE. THE SSMIS IMAGE INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEGRADED AROUND THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, BUT HAS EXPANDED ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE, WITH POSSIBLE EARLY INDICATIONS OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) SETTING UP. DESPITE SOME DEGRADATION IN THE EIR AND MICROWAVE PRESENTATION, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 100 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS) FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES, AND SUPPORTED BY A MULTI-PLATFORM WIND ANALYSIS ESTIMATE OF 106 KNOTS. BERGUITTA REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT NEARLY UNDERNEATH A POINT SOURCE, WITH THE LATEST SHIPS ANALYSIS INDICATING LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND 28 DEGREE CELSIUS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW THAT OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST, ALTHOUGH THE POLEWARD CHANNEL HAS RELAXED SLIGHTLY. SOME SLIGHT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE AS TC 09S TRACKS OVER A TONGUE OF HIGHER SSTS, HOWEVER, SHIPS INDICATES VWS WILL BEGIN TO LIMIT THE INTENSIFICATION BY TAU 24. GIVEN OTHERWISE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, BERGUITTA SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN A NEAR STEADY INTENSITY AROUND 100 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS, ALTHOUGH THE EXACT VALUES WILL FLUCTUATE IF AN ERC DOES OCCUR. BEYOND TAU 36, INCREASING VWS AND DECLINING OCEANIC SUPPORT WILL LEAD TO WEAKENING. THE LATEST BEST TRACK INDICATES TC 06S HAS BEGUN TO PICK UP FORWARD SPEED, WITH THE GFS INITIALIZATION INDICATING A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST OF TC 06S BUILDING MORE RAPIDLY THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. AS A RESULT, THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS WARNING AND AHEAD OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY MOTION SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL BERGUITTA TURNS SOUTHWARD AND BEGINS TO ROUND THE STR NEAR TAU 96. EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY TAU 96 AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER SUB-26 DEGREE CELSIUS WATER, AND SHOULD BE COMPLETE BY TAU 120. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE SPREAD HAS REMAINED LOW FOR SEVERAL CYCLES, WITH THE BULK OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE ALONG-TRACK DIRECTION. DUE TO GENERALLY GOOD MODEL GUIDANCE AGREEMENT, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z AND 170300Z.//