WTXS31 PGTW 160900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 015 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 160600Z --- NEAR 18.0S 61.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 61.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 18.3S 60.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 19.0S 59.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 19.9S 58.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 21.1S 56.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 23.8S 53.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 12 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 27.9S 50.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 32.5S 51.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 160900Z POSITION NEAR 18.1S 61.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 274 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A TIGHTLY WOUND CYCLONE WITH A CLOUD FILLED RAGGED EYE FEATURE. A 160504Z 89GHZ AMSU IMAGE SHOWS THE STRUCTURE WEAKENED ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY AND THE DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 95 KNOTS WHICH IS BASED ON MULTIAGENCY CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.0 TO T5.5 AND A 160249Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 97 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK POINT SOURCE POSITIONED OVER THE SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER POINT SOURCE OFFSET TO THE NORTHEAST. EASTERLY WINDS FROM THE SECONDARY POINT SOURCE ARE BEGINNING TO INFLUENCE OUTFLOW ON THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN EDGES OF TC 06S, BUT NOT TO A SIGNIFICANT DEGREE. HOWEVER, THIS INTERACTION WILL BECOME MORE APPARENT IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS OUTFLOW IS FURTHER RESTRICTED AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES, CAUSING TC 06S TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. SSTS IN THE REGION ARE WARM (28 CELSIUS), AND CONDUCIVE TO SUPPORT TC STRENGTH WINDS FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. BELOW APPROXIMATELY 25 DEGREES SOUTH SSTS BEGIN TO DROP CONSIDERABLY. TC 06S HAS TRACKED WESTWARD OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS UNDER A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH RIDGES TO BOTH THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE SOUTHWESTERN RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, MERGING WITH THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE. THE NEW RIDGE PATTERN WILL STEER TC 06S ON A COURSE WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH TAU 72 THEN SHIFT TO A TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD BY TAU 120 AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS. AROUND TAU 96 TC 06S WILL BEGIN INTERACTING WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND FULLY TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING IMPROVEMENT IN THE TRACK UNCERTAINTY WITH ECMWF, GFS, JGSM, AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ALL CLOSELY GROUPED TOGETHER THROUGH TAU 48 WITH A TRACK IMPACTING BOTH MAURITIUS AND LA REUNION. THE FORECAST TRACK IS HEDGED TOWARD THESE SOLUTIONS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z, 162100Z, 170300Z AND 170900Z.//