WTXS31 PGTW 170300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 018 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 170000Z --- NEAR 18.3S 60.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S 60.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 18.8S 59.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 19.8S 58.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 21.0S 56.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 22.4S 54.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 26.1S 51.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 12 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 30.9S 50.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 33.8S 53.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 345 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 285 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 170300Z POSITION NEAR 18.4S 60.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 216 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP AND PERSISTENT, NEARLY SYMMETRIC, CONVECTION AROUND TC 06S. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 162310Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A POORLY DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS IS HEDGED BETWEEN DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS) FROM PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE AND A CI OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) FROM FIMP. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL REMAINS PRESENT. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP SHOWS DRY AIR IS CONTINUING TO WRAP INTO TC 06S. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE (27 TO 28 DEGREES CELSIUS). TC 06S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE STR WILL CONTINUE TO STEER TC 06S SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. TC 06S WILL THEN TRACK SOUTHWARD BEFORE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 96 AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. TC 06S WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM ALONG WITH INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z.//