WTXS31 PGTW 172100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 021// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 021 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 171800Z --- NEAR 18.9S 59.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 59.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 20.1S 58.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 21.5S 56.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 23.1S 54.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 25.1S 52.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 30.0S 51.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 32.4S 53.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 172100Z POSITION NEAR 19.2S 59.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 144 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHIELD OF RELATIVELY DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT IN A 171715Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS AND A 1758Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THESE ASCAT PASSES, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED SATELLITE INTENSITY CONSENSUS ESTIMATES. TC 06S IS TURNING POLEWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A REORIENTING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD, BEGINNING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 72 AND COMPLETING BY TAU 96. INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND UNFAVORABLE, MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR EXERT COMPETING INFLUENCES. MARGINAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED IN THE MEDIUM TO EXTENDED-RANGE AS THE TC 06S TRACKS OVER COOLER WATER AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, BUT RECEIVES OFFSETTING BAROCLINIC SUPPORT AS IT UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE CURRENT, HIGH- CONFIDENCE FORECAST TRACK IS CONSISTENT WITH CONSENSUS MODEL TRACKERS, WHICH REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z, 180900Z, 181500Z AND 182100Z.//